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Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
Article . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
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Economic consequences of spatial variation and temporal variability of climate change

Authors: Francisco Estrada; Richard S. J. Tol; Wouter Botzen;

Economic consequences of spatial variation and temporal variability of climate change

Abstract

Abstract Damage functions in integrated assessment models (IAMs) map changes in climate to economic impacts and are central to estimating the social cost of carbon (SCC). However, these functions assume no spatial variation (Svar) and temporal variability (Tvar) in climate changes, potentially biasing estimates and policy advice. While the effects of Tvar have been studied, those of Svar and their interactions with Tvar have not. Here, we allow for Tvar, Svar, and seasonality of damages and show that ignoring these factors significantly biases loss and SCC estimates. Under a high emissions scenario, losses are underestimated by 17–45%, representing US$1.9–US$9.7 trillion by 2050 and US$19–US$70 trillion by 2100 (17–35%). The present value of losses over this century exceeds previous estimates by US$38–US$222 trillion, representing 37–218% of 2020 global gross domestic product (GDP). The present value of losses including climate variability represents about 1.2–11.7% of the present value of global GDP over 2020–2100. The SCC increases by US$20/tCO 2 , reaching US$106/tCO 2 . There is large sectoral and regional heterogeneity regarding losses and SCC, with India, Africa, and China accounting for 50% of global SCC, and health and other markets contributing 40%. A more complete climate description than global mean temperature is needed in IAMs to adequately estimate climate change costs.

Keywords

climate variability, climate change, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, social cost of carbon, Climate Change, Gross Domestic Product, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Humans, Original Article, damage functions, integrated assessment models, economic costs

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
hybrid