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Avoiding Time-Related Biases: A Feasibility Study on Antidiabetic Drugs and Pancreatic Cancer Applying the Parametric g-Formula to a Large German Healthcare Database

Authors: Claudia Börnhorst; Tammo Reinders; Wolfgang Rathmann; Brenda Bongaerts; Ulrike Haug; Vanessa Didelez; Bianca Kollhorst;

Avoiding Time-Related Biases: A Feasibility Study on Antidiabetic Drugs and Pancreatic Cancer Applying the Parametric g-Formula to a Large German Healthcare Database

Abstract

Investigating intended or unintended effects of sustained drug use is of high clinical relevance but remains methodologically challenging. This feasibility study aims to evaluate the usefulness of the parametric g-formula within a target trial for application to an extensive healthcare database in order to address various sources of time-related biases and time-dependent confounding.Based on the German Pharmacoepidemiological Research Database (GePaRD), we estimated the pancreatic cancer incidence comparing two hypothetical treatment strategies for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), i.e., (A) sustained metformin monotherapy vs (B) combination therapy with DPP-4 inhibitors after one year metformin monotherapy. We included 77,330 persons with T2DM who started metformin therapy at baseline between 2005 and 2011. Key aspects for avoiding time-related biases and time-dependent confounding were the emulation of a target trial over a 7-year follow-up period and application of the parametric g-formula.Over the 7-year follow-up period, 652 out of the 77,330 study subjects had a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. Assuming no unobserved confounding, we found evidence that the metformin/DPP-4i combination therapy increased the risk of pancreatic cancer compared to a sustained metformin monotherapy (risk ratio: 1.47; 95% bootstrap CI: 1.07-1.94). The risk ratio decreased in sensitivity analyses addressing protopathic bias.While protopathic bias could not fully be ruled out, and computational challenges necessitated compromises in the analysis, the g-formula and target trial emulation proved useful: Self-inflicted biases were avoided, observed time-varying confounding was adjusted for, and the estimated risks have a clear causal interpretation.

Keywords

time-related bias, type-2 diabetes mellitus, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, time-dependent confounding, parametric g-formula, Target trial emulation ; Time-related bias ; Type-2 diabetes mellitus ; Electronic health data ; Parametric g-formula ; Time-dependent confounding, electronic health data, Clinical Epidemiology, target trial emulation, Original Research

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold