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Financial Internet Quarterly
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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Financial Internet Quarterly
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
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Article . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
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Modeling the relationship among the stock market, gold price, oil price and exchange rate: A VECM and VDA approach

Authors: Pravin Kumar Agrawal; Mohit Kumar;

Modeling the relationship among the stock market, gold price, oil price and exchange rate: A VECM and VDA approach

Abstract

Abstract Globalization and liberalization have heightened the volatility and complexity of financial markets, prompting investors to diversify their portfolios across different asset classes. This study investigates the dynamic interrelationships among the Indian stock market benchmark index (Nifty 50), gold prices, oil prices (Brent and WTI), and the USD/INR exchange rate, using high-frequency daily data from January 2009 to March 2023. By employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Variance Decomposition Analysis (VDA), the study explores both the short-term and long-term dynamics between these asset classes. The results reveal that a long-term equilibrium exists among the variables, with significant cointegration, indicating that investors may not benefit from diversifying their portfolios across these assets. The VECM analysis further shows that the stock market is influenced by changes in gold prices, exchange rates, and oil prices, with long-run causality running from these variables to the Nifty 50. Variance decomposition highlights the growing impact of gold, exchange rates, and oil prices on stock market fluctuations over time. These findings provide crucial insights for investors, portfolio managers, and policy-makers, suggesting that external shocks in commodity prices and exchange rates can significantly affect stock market performance. The study concludes that understanding these dynamic linkages is essential for managing investment risks and formulating effective monetary and fiscal policies.

Keywords

G17, Vector Error Correction Model, g17, johansen cointegration test, ddc:330, Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, augmented dickey fuller test, Variance Decomposition Analysis, HG1-9999, Nifty 50, Impulse Response Function, vector error correction model, g10, g32, G10, G32, G11, g11, variance decomposition analysis, impulse response function, nifty 50, Finance, Johansen Cointegration Test

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Published in a Diamond OA journal