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Tendencias Demográficas: Pronóstico de la Población Infantil de 0 a 3 años para el Año 2030

Authors: Gandy René López Fuertes; Gustavo Napoleón López Fuertes; Jeimy Sugey Hernández Martínez; Iván Cristian Naula Reina; Guillermo Alexis Albuja Proaño;

Tendencias Demográficas: Pronóstico de la Población Infantil de 0 a 3 años para el Año 2030

Abstract

Este trabajo calcula la cantidad de niños y niñas de 0 a 3 años en Ecuador que viven en condiciones de pobreza, utilizando información combinada de la Encuesta de Condiciones de Vida (ECV) 2014 y el Censo de Población y Vivienda (CPV) 2010, ya que los datos actuales no ofrecen suficiente detalle por regiones. Para ello, se emplea el método de Estimación para Áreas Pequeñas (SAE), basado en el modelo Fay-Herriot, que utiliza regresión lineal múltiple para integrar datos de encuestas y censos. Este enfoque permite analizar subpoblaciones específicas, como cantones o distritos, donde las encuestas por sí solas no brindan resultados confiables debido a muestras pequeñas. Además, se simula la pobreza basada en el consumo y se proyecta la población infantil hasta el año 2030, comparando estas proyecciones con estimaciones de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) para verificar su exactitud. El propósito principal de esta investigación es ofrecer información precisa y detallada sobre la infancia en pobreza, apoyando así la creación de políticas públicas efectivas en Ecuador.

Keywords

Pobreza infantil, TK7885-7895, bienestar infantil, modelo Fay-Herriot, Computer engineering. Computer hardware, proyecciones demográficas, Industrial engineering. Management engineering, regresión múltiple, T55.4-60.8, TA1-2040, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold