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AbstractAnalytic compartmental models are currently used in mathematical epidemiology to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and explore the impact of mitigation strategies. In general, such models treat the population as a single entity, losing the social, cultural and economical specifici- ties. We present a network model that uses socio-demographic datasets with the highest available granularity to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona. The model is flexible enough to incorporate the effect of containment policies, such as lockdowns or the use of protec- tive masks, and can be easily adapted to future epidemics. We follow a stochastic approach that combines a compartmental model with detailed individual microdata from the population census, including social determinants and age-dependent strata, and time-dependent mobility information. We show that our model reproduces the dynamical features of the disease across two waves and demonstrate its capability to become a powerful tool for simulating epidemic events.
COVID-19 Pandemic, 330, Pandèmia de COVID-19, COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Mathematical models, Intervention, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Socio-demographic data, Article, COVID-19 modelling, networks, agent based models, Pandèmia de COVID-19, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Models matemàtics, Parameter estimation, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Mathematical models, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Models matemàtics, COVID-19 modelling, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Investigació operativa::Simulació
COVID-19 Pandemic, 330, Pandèmia de COVID-19, COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Mathematical models, Intervention, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Socio-demographic data, Article, COVID-19 modelling, networks, agent based models, Pandèmia de COVID-19, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Models matemàtics, Parameter estimation, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Mathematical models, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Models matemàtics, COVID-19 modelling, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Investigació operativa::Simulació
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