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Stochastic simulation of successive waves of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona

Authors: M. Bosman; A. Esteve; L. Gabbanelli; X. Jordan; A. López-Gay; M. Manera; M. Martínez; +6 Authors

Stochastic simulation of successive waves of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona

Abstract

AbstractAnalytic compartmental models are currently used in mathematical epidemiology to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and explore the impact of mitigation strategies. In general, such models treat the population as a single entity, losing the social, cultural and economical specifici- ties. We present a network model that uses socio-demographic datasets with the highest available granularity to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the province of Barcelona. The model is flexible enough to incorporate the effect of containment policies, such as lockdowns or the use of protec- tive masks, and can be easily adapted to future epidemics. We follow a stochastic approach that combines a compartmental model with detailed individual microdata from the population census, including social determinants and age-dependent strata, and time-dependent mobility information. We show that our model reproduces the dynamical features of the disease across two waves and demonstrate its capability to become a powerful tool for simulating epidemic events.

Countries
Italy, Spain, Spain, Spain
Keywords

COVID-19 Pandemic, 330, Pandèmia de COVID-19, COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Mathematical models, Intervention, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Socio-demographic data, Article, COVID-19 modelling, networks, agent based models, Pandèmia de COVID-19, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Models matemàtics, Parameter estimation, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Mathematical models, 2020- -- Barcelona -- Models matemàtics, COVID-19 modelling, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Investigació operativa::Simulació

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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