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Uluslararası Ekonomi, İşletme ve Politika Dergisi
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Predicting Financial Distress in The Textile Industry: A Comparative Analysis of Meta Models and Single Classifiers

Authors: Ahmet Akusta; Musa Gün;

Predicting Financial Distress in The Textile Industry: A Comparative Analysis of Meta Models and Single Classifiers

Abstract

This study evaluates the effectiveness of meta-models in predicting financial distress in the Turkish textile industry. Using economic data from 2013 to 2023, the research applies a meta-model that integrates Lasso, Ridge, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) as base models, with XGBoost serving as the meta learner. The results show that the meta-model outperforms a standalone XGBoost classifier, especially in minimizing false negatives, which is critical for the early detection of financial distress. The meta-model achieved superior recall and F1 scores, offering a more reliable tool for predicting financial instability in volatile sectors like textiles. However, the study also acknowledges limitations such as model selection bias, the complexity of hyperparameter tuning, and reduced interpretability due to the ensemble nature of the approach. The findings highlight the potential of meta-modeling for industry-specific financial risk prediction while suggesting future improvements in model transparency and generalizability.

Keywords

Finans, finansal piyasalar, Finance and Investment (Other), Financial Distress Prediction;Machine Learning;Feature Engineering;Financial Markets, makine öğrenmesi, Finans ve Yatırım (Diğer), financial distress prediction, J, feature engineering, machine learning, Economics as a science, finansal sıkıntı tahmini, financial markets, Finansal Sıkıntı Tahmini;Makine Öğrenmesi;Özellik Mühendisliği;Finansal Piyasalar, özellik mühendisliği, Political science, HB71-74, Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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