
The work analyzes the transformational processes in Ukraine’s foreign trade with EU countries, as well as the interaction models between the national logistics infrastructure and international logistics corridors under the conditions of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. The development of a virtually new logistics structure for the export and import of goods, including those from third countries, became necessary. Ukraine continued to reform its transport sector during the war in accordance with its commitments under the Association Agreement with the EU. Further liberalization of trade relations between the EU and Ukraine amid the aggression contributed to maintaining and increasing exports to EU member states. Two years into the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian exports to the EU were slightly below pre-war levels. However, thanks to international aid, Ukraine was able to increase its imports from the EU by more than one-third. In the pre-war period, Ukraine primarily used road, sea, and rail transport for its exports to the EU, while EU exports to Ukraine were 80% carried by road transport. During the war, the share of sea transport in Ukrainian exports decreased from 38% to 29%, which was offset by increasing shares of road and rail transport. Additionally, there was a smaller increase in the importance of rail transport for Ukrainian imports, rising from 5.7% to 9.3%, compensating for the declining shares of sea and air transport. Regression analysis showed that pre-war dominant modes of transport, logistics performance in trade partners, and their changes during the war did not significantly affect Ukraine’s trade dynamics with them in 2023 compared to 2021, after controlling for other factors. Thus, logistics for trade with the EU proved to be relatively resilient, considering the low contribution of the most affected air transport to overall trade flows, the partial restoration of sea routes after their initial collapse in 2022, further bilateral trade liberalization, international aid, and sectoral integration in transport. Rather than logistical factors, the dispersion of trade dynamics with EU member states can be more effectively explained by factors related to the value chain effect and dynamic overlapping demand effect. Specifically, Ukraine increased its exports to EU countries that were more successful in expanding their extra-EU exports. Ukraine also increased its imports primarily from member states with a relatively low development level compared to the EU average, while decreasing imports from the richest economies.
Economics as a science, russia-ukraine war, HF5001-6182, trade partners, foreign trade, Business, eu member states, commodity markets, logistic, HB71-74, trade liberalization, free trade area
Economics as a science, russia-ukraine war, HF5001-6182, trade partners, foreign trade, Business, eu member states, commodity markets, logistic, HB71-74, trade liberalization, free trade area
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 0 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Average | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Average |
