Turkiye’s industrialization and foreign trade strategies have contributed significantly to economic growth but also led to environmental concerns due to rising carbon emissions. As a country heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports to meet its energy needs, Turkiye faces growing challenges in aligning its industrial development with environmental responsibilities. Especially under the increasing influence of international environmental regulations and carbon adjustment mechanisms, there is a pressing need to re-evaluate its current production structure. In this context, examining the relationship between industrial activity, trade flows, and carbon emissions becomes increasingly important. This study investigates the causal relationships between industrial output, exports, imports, and carbon emissions in Turkiye using time series data from 1989 to 2022. The empirical analysis employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Granger causality testing. The results reveal that imports significantly influence both industrial production and exports, while exports also affect industrial activity. However, carbon emissions are not found to have a direct causal impact on trade or industrial output within the studied period. These findings suggest that carbon emissions have not yet emerged as a binding constraint on Turkiye’s production structure. Nonetheless, increasing investments in renewable energy is essential for ensuring energy security, environmental compliance, and long-term competitiveness. The study offers policy implications for developing countries with similar economic structures and provides both theoretical and practical contributions to the formulation of environmentally sustainable industrial strategies.