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PeerJ Computer Science
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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PeerJ Computer Science
Article . 2025
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A methodological approach for inferring causal relationships from opinions and news-derived events with an application to climate change

Authors: Juan Marten; Fernando Delbianco; Fernando Tohme; Ana G. Maguitman;

A methodological approach for inferring causal relationships from opinions and news-derived events with an application to climate change

Abstract

Social media platforms like Twitter (now X) provide a global forum for discussing ideas. In this work, we propose a novel methodology for detecting causal relationships in online discourse. Our approach integrates multiple causal inference techniques to analyze how public sentiment and discourse evolve in response to key events and influential figures, using five causal detection methods: Direct-LiNGAM, PC, PCMCI, VAR, and stochastic causality. The datasets contain variables, such as different topics, sentiments, and real-world events, among which we seek to detect causal relationships at different frequencies. The proposed methodology is applied to climate change opinions and data, offering insights into the causal relationships among public sentiment, specific topics, and natural disasters. This approach provides a framework for analyzing various causal questions. In the specific case of climate change, we can hypothesize that a surge in discussions on a specific topic consistently precedes a change in overall sentiment, level of aggressiveness, or the proportion of users expressing certain stances. We can also conjecture that real-world events, like natural disasters and the rise to power of politicians leaning towards climate change denial, may have a noticeable impact on the discussion on social media. We illustrate how the proposed methodology can be applied to examine these questions by combining datasets on tweets and climate disasters.

Keywords

Opinion mining, Sentiment analysis, Algorithms and Analysis of Algorithms, Electronic computers. Computer science, Climate change, Topic mining, QA75.5-76.95, Causal analysis, Social media mining

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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