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International Journal of Epidemiologic Research
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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Time Series Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Sabzevar Northeastern Iran Using Segmented Regression Model

Authors: Hadis Barati; Erfan Ayubi; Sohrab Iranpour; Mohammad Barati; Ahmad Allah-Abadi; Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari;

Time Series Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Sabzevar Northeastern Iran Using Segmented Regression Model

Abstract

Background and aims: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the most important parasitic diseases in the world. Sabzevar city is endemic area for CL in the north east of Iran. The aim of this study was to evaluate the time distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Sabzevar County using the segmented regression model. Methods: This ecological study used the existing data related to the rural districts of Sabzevar County that were obtained from the Health Deputy of this county during 2011-2017. In addition, the segmented regression model was applied to evaluate the time trend of CLs. Finally, Joinpoint software was used for time series analysis. Results: A total of 1912 CL cases occurred in Sabzevar County from 2011 to 2017, with an incidence rate of 93.61 per 100000. The highest and lowest observed incidence rates were in 2011 (25 per 10000 persons) and 2015 (3.24 per 10000 persons), respectively. Based on the results, the annual incidence of CL in the intended region decreased and the annual percent change was equal to -22.40. Further, the time series analysis using segmented regression by rural districts showed a change point in the trend of the incidence of leishmaniasis in three rural districts (Pain Joveyn and Joghatai in 2014 and Qasabeh-ye Sharqi in 2013). In other words, the trend was different before and after the change point in the mentioned districts. Conclusion: In general, the results indicated that interventional, preventive, and therapeutic measures for breaking the chain of CL transmission in Sabzevar have been desirable in recent years. Eventually, it is suggested that further time-series studies be conducted at the level of the month or a longer interval in order to better evaluate the period effect and secular trend.

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Keywords

cutaneous leishmaniasis, sabzevar, Therapeutics. Pharmacology, RM1-950, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, segmented regression model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold