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Stochastic SIR Model Predicts the Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemics from Public Health and Wastewater Data in Small and Medium-Sized Municipalities: A One Year Study

Authors: Manuel Pájaro; Noelia M. Fajar; Antonio A. Alonso; Irene Otero-Muras;

Stochastic SIR Model Predicts the Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemics from Public Health and Wastewater Data in Small and Medium-Sized Municipalities: A One Year Study

Abstract

The level of unpredictability of the COVID-19 pandemics poses a challenge to effectively model its dynamic evolution. In this study we incorporate the inherent stochasticity of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread by reinterpreting the classical compartmental models of infectious diseases (SIR type) as chemical reaction systems modeled via the Chemical Master Equation and solved by Monte Carlo Methods. Our model predicts the evolution of the pandemics at the level of municipalities, incorporating for the first time (i) a variable infection rate to capture the effect of mitigation policies on the dynamic evolution of the pandemics (ii) SIR-with-jumps taking into account the possibility of multiple infections from a single infected person and (iii) data of viral load quantified by RT-qPCR from samples taken from Wastewater Treatment Plants. The model has been successfully employed for the prediction of the COVID-19 pandemics evolution in small and medium size municipalities of Galicia (Northwest of Spain).

Country
Spain
Keywords

Stochastic mechanistic model, Stochastic simulation algorithm, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Article, Chemical master equation, SARS-coV-2, SIR model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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22
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