Epizootic Activity of Natural Plague Foci in the Russian Federation in 2012 and Prognosis for the Year of 2013

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 20 Mar 2013Publisher:Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute MicrobeJournal:Problems of Particularly Dangerous Infections (issn: 0370-1069,

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Authors: N. V. Popov; V. E. Bezsmertny; V. P. Toporkov; A. A. Kuznetsov; A. N. Matrosov; T. V. Knyazeva; V. P. Popov; +9 Authors

doi: 10.21055/0370-1069-2013-1-5-10

Epizootic Activity of Natural Plague Foci in the Russian Federation in 2012 and Prognosis for the Year of 2013

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Abstract

Integrated are the data on the number of major carriers and vectors as well as the epizootic activity of natural foci of plague of different types in the territory of Russia in 2012. Submitted is the short-term forecast of epizootic situation for 2013. Analyzed are the reasons of current low epizootic activity of plain natural foci of plague. The role of climatic factors in the development of long inter-epizootic periods in plague natural foci in the Pre-Caucasus, Pre-Caspian regions and Siberia is discussed. Assessed is the change of potential epidemiologic hazard of plague-enzootic territories under the current warming of climate. The long-term forecast of epizootic activity of natural plague foci for the period of up to 2020 is substantiated.

Keywords

epizootic activity, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, изменение климата, natural plague foci, short-term and long-term epizootiological forecast, number of carriers and transmitters of plague, природные очаги чумы, долгосрочный и краткосрочный эпизоотологический прогноз, climate change, численность носителей и переносчиков чумы, эпизоотическая активность

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