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Revista de Economia Mackenzie
Article . 2009
Data sources: DOAJ
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Previsibilidade de crises no mercado financeiro

Authors: Marco Antonio Leonel Caetano; Takashi Yoneyama;

Previsibilidade de crises no mercado financeiro

Abstract

Crises or crashes in financial markets have been studied since the well known event of 1929 and several mathematical models have been proposed in the literature in order to be employed in the process of forecasting abrupt changes in the behavior of investors. Methods involving econometric models are quite common in works dealing with quantitative tools for analysis and forecasting of financial scenarios. The main idea in this work is to present one of these traditional methods, namely that using a log-periodic model and compare its performance with a new proposed method that uses Wavelet Transforms to detect changes in the price trends. An evaluation was carried out using historical pre and post crash data of the 1929 event, as well as more recent data from Dow Jones Average (USA), Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) and Ibovespa (Brazil). These data were used to test the adequacy of the early warning of occurrence of crises in financial markets, as provided by the two methods.

Keywords

crisis, Economics as a science, Economic history and conditions, HC10-1085, crashes, HB71-74, stock market

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold