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Estimation of Constant and Time-varying Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the Natural gas Futures Market

Authors: Mohammad Alimoradi;

Estimation of Constant and Time-varying Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the Natural gas Futures Market

Abstract

One of the most important roles of a futures market is to provide the means of risk reduction. Optimal hedge strategy is determined via calculation of the hedge ratio. Estimation of hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness depend on correct specification of relation between spot and futures prices. Thus in this paper hedge ratio is estimated for the natural gas futures market by different methods e.g. OLS, VAR, VECM, and GARCH and their effectiveness is compared. In GARCH method, hedge ratio is time-varying so the time series of hedge ratio are estimated while the in other methods a fixed hedge ratio is estimated. Results show that GARCH hedge ratio has higher effectiveness rather than other methods and the effectiveness of other methods are ranked as: VECM, OLS and VAR respectively.

Keywords

H, Futures market; Hedge ratio; Hedge effectiveness; Natural Gas; Multivariate GARCH, Social Sciences, HD9502-9502.5, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold