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Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic

Authors: Juraj Lojka; Jiří Obst; Jan Zeman;

Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic

Abstract

Business and Consumer surveys are designed to signal turning points and provide in advance the informatik about potential changes in the economic cycle. The authors, using advanced methods of time series analysis, especially Granger causality and vector autoregressive models, deal with the question of to what extent the results of the surveys in the form of confidence indicators are able to outpace the development of the Czech economy represented by gross value added. In addition, the authors, experimenting with the structure of surveyed questions and used weights, propose some modifications in the construction of confidence indicators as stipulated by the European Commission with the aim to improve their forecasting abilities.

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Keywords

gross value added, Statistics, vector autoregressive model, Granger causality, Business and consumer survey, stationarity test of variables, economic sentiment indicator, HA1-4737

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Published in a Diamond OA journal