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Stanovništvo
Article . 2012
Data sources: DOAJ
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Novo poimanje starosti – prospektivna starost

Authors: Mirjana Devedžić; Jelena Stojilković;

Novo poimanje starosti – prospektivna starost

Abstract

Dok je prošli vek bio vek porasta svetskog stanovništva, prema tvrdnjama demografa, XXI će biti vek starenja stanovništva. Nasuprot rastućem interesovanju za ovaj fenomen, koncepti kojima se definiše starenje stanovništva su ostali stagnantni. Cilj ovog rada je da se u našu literaturu uvede pojam "prospektivna starost" kao dinamička kategorija na koju utiču sve više društveno-istorijski uslovi, a ne samo biološki kao u tradicionalnoj definiciji starenja. Radovima Sandersona i Scherbova otvaraju se nove metodološke mogućnosti kada je izučavanje populacijskog starenja u pitanju, jer se koristi biometrijski, a ne hronološki pristup. Tako se "prospektivni prag" definiše kao starost kada očekivano trajanje života pada ispod 15 godina, pa su tokom razrade ove ideje pomenuti autori konstruisali, tačnije redefinisali, tri pokazatelja demografske starosti zasnovana na prospektivnim godinama: (prospektivni) udeo starih lica, (prospektivnu) medijalnu starost i (prospektivni) koeficijent starosne zavisnosti starih. Uvažavanje prospektivne starosti u izračunavanju demografskog starenja ukazuje na proces podmlađivanja svetskog stanovništva sve do 2035. godine, duži i intenzivniji od onog koji definiše proporcija starih. U Srbiji je starost iskazana preko prospektivnog praga uvek bila viša nego preko retrospektivnih godina, odnosno udeo stanovnika sa očekivanim trajanjem života kraćim od 15 godina je konstantno bio veći od udela stanovnika starijih od 65 godina. Prema prospektivnom kriterijumu, razlike između muškaraca i žena skoro da ne postoje, tako da se dovodi u pitanje i široko prihvaćena feminizacija starih. Prospektivne godine su neophodna dopuna javnim politikama, posebno penzionom i zdravstvenom sistemu, jer u kombinaciji sa tradicionalnim pristupima mogu da stvore pravedniju raspodelu za sve starije i mlađe građane.

Keywords

starenje stanovništva, Demography. Population. Vital events, očekivano trajanje života, prospektivna starost, HB848-3697, redifinisanje starenja

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Published in a Diamond OA journal