Taking Weiqiang Coal Mine 1313 working face as an example, through the analysis of mine geological, hydrogeological conditions, the main water-filled source and water-filled channel of working face mining are determined, and the surface collapse caused by stoping of 1313 working face is predicted by using probability integral method in combination with the measured results of surface movement deformation in advance, so as to judge the damage degree of surface reservoir dam body. The results show that the sandstone aquifer of the fourth member of Jurassic Yan’an Formation and Zhilao Formation of No.3 coal seam is the main water-filling source in the mining of 1313 working face, and the overlying rock water-guiding fault zone is the main water-filling channel, and the atmospheric precipitation and surface reservoir water will not be communicated into the underground; However, the surface collapse and deformation after stoping will cause grade IV damage to the dam body of the reservoir, which is very likely to cause the overflow of water body of the reservoir and the risk of irrigation into the downstream farmland.