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From prediction to prescription: Machine learning and Causal Inference

Authors: Abécassis, Judith; Dumas, Élise; Alberge, Julie; Varoquaux, Gaël;

From prediction to prescription: Machine learning and Causal Inference

Abstract

The increasing accumulation of medical data brings the hope of data-driven medical decision-making, but its increasing complexity -as text or images in electronic health records-calls for complex models, such as machine learning. Here, we review how machine learning can be used to inform decisions for individualized interventions, a causal question. Going from prediction to causal effects is challenging as no individual is seen as both treated and not. We detail how some data can support some causal claims and how to build causal estimators with machine learning. Beyond variable selection to adjust for confounding bias, we cover the broader notions of study design that make or break causal inference. As the problems span across diverse scientific communities, we use didactic yet statistically precise formulations to bridge machine learning to epidemiology.

Keywords

large scale data, [INFO.INFO-AI] Computer Science [cs]/Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI], machine learning, [SDV.BIBS] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM], data-driven decision making, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, personalized medicine, causal inference, [MATH.MATH-ST] Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], [STAT.ML] Statistics [stat]/Machine Learning [stat.ML]

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green