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Consumption in Asset Returns

Authors: Bryzgalova, S; Julliard, C;

Consumption in Asset Returns

Abstract

Consumption dynamics are hard to measure accurately in the data, yet they are the crucial ingredient of macro-finance asset pricing models. The central insight of these models is that, in equilibrium, both consumption and returns are largely driven by the same fundamental shocks. Therefore, we use the information in returns to identify the underlying process of consumption. We find that aggregate consumption growth reacts over multiple quarters to the innovations spanned by bond and stock returns. This persistent component: (a) is economically large i.e. it accounts for about 26% of the total variation in consumption; (b) drives most of the time series variation of stocks and a significant (yet small) fraction of bond returns; (c) is reflected in the term structure of interest rates; and (d) is priced jointly in the cross-sections of bond and stock returns. These results, stable across estimation techniques and robustness checks, pose a novel challenge for asset pricing theory.

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United Kingdom
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green