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Não Estacionariedade na Construção de Curvas de Permanência com Vistas à Outorga de Recursos Hídricos

Authors: Detzel, Daniel Henrique Marco; Fernandes, Cristóvão Vicente Scapulatempo; Mine, Miriam Rita Moro;

Não Estacionariedade na Construção de Curvas de Permanência com Vistas à Outorga de Recursos Hídricos

Abstract

RESUMO Atividades antrópicas nas bacias hidrográficas são responsáveis por causar mudanças no uso do solo, de modo a ocasionar reflexos nas vazões afluentes de seus rios. Dentre essas consequências está a alteração dos primeiros momentos estatísticos das séries hidrológicas, condição conhecida por não estacionariedade. O emprego de uma série não estacionária pode repercutir em erros relevantes e conclusões tendenciosas nas análises propostas. Dessa maneira, o presente trabalho avalia os possíveis efeitos dessa condição na disponibilidade hídrica para outorga de uso dos recursos hídricos em seis postos hidrométricos brasileiros, considerando como referência a Q95%. Opta-se pelo uso da curva de permanência mediana anual e de curvas de permanência sazonais, determinadas em dois momentos distintos das séries históricas, antes e depois do ano de 1969. Os resultados sugerem aumento da Q95% em quatro postos e redução nos outros dois. Além disso, alterações importantes foram também identificadas em permanências intermediárias, sugerindo que as variações nas séries não estão limitadas a valores extremos.

Keywords

TC401-506, Technology, Outorga de recursos hídricos, outorga de recursos hídricos, Curva de permanência, T, Flow-duration curve, Statistical stationarity, Hydraulic engineering, Estacionariedade estatística, estacionariedade estatística, curva de permanência, River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General), G, Environmental sciences, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, GE1-350, TC1-978, Water resources permits

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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