
FORESEEING means “FrOm RupturE procesS to Earthquake Early warnING” and is a groundbreaking research project halfway between the investigation of the earthquake generation processes and the implementation of methods for real-time risk mitigation actions. Incredible progress in earthquake source characterization and modelling has been achieved in the last decades. However, the mechanism of nucleation, radiation and arrest of seismic fractures is still poorly understood and with that, the fundamental issue of seismology is still unsolved: “How do earthquakes begin and what does control their final size?” Within FORESEEING, I want to get to the bottom of the earthquake nucleation with all possible means. I want to solve the unsolved issue of how earthquakes start and understand the physical processes of their generation. Once this issue is understood, I want my research outcomes to become a concrete support for the community and be implemented into Earthquake Early Warning systems, for the prompt activation of emergency actions that can save lives, reduce damage, improve resilience. This will be achieved through an interdisciplinary research approach looking at the rupture process from different points of view. Real earthquake data will be used to find out evidence of the nucleation phase of seismic ruptures and to understand the relationship between the observed features of the initial recorded signals and the following evolution of the seismic ruptures. Laboratory experiments will allow to deeply understand which parameters may influence the rupture development and how they are involved in the process. Digital twins will give the chance to explore in great details the fracture processes during crustal earthquakes and investigate faulting mechanism in realistic conditions. The implementation of real-time algorithms for EEW will move the fundamental knowledge beyond the scientific research, becoming a tool to reduce the risk during major earthquakes.

FORESEEING means “FrOm RupturE procesS to Earthquake Early warnING” and is a groundbreaking research project halfway between the investigation of the earthquake generation processes and the implementation of methods for real-time risk mitigation actions. Incredible progress in earthquake source characterization and modelling has been achieved in the last decades. However, the mechanism of nucleation, radiation and arrest of seismic fractures is still poorly understood and with that, the fundamental issue of seismology is still unsolved: “How do earthquakes begin and what does control their final size?” Within FORESEEING, I want to get to the bottom of the earthquake nucleation with all possible means. I want to solve the unsolved issue of how earthquakes start and understand the physical processes of their generation. Once this issue is understood, I want my research outcomes to become a concrete support for the community and be implemented into Earthquake Early Warning systems, for the prompt activation of emergency actions that can save lives, reduce damage, improve resilience. This will be achieved through an interdisciplinary research approach looking at the rupture process from different points of view. Real earthquake data will be used to find out evidence of the nucleation phase of seismic ruptures and to understand the relationship between the observed features of the initial recorded signals and the following evolution of the seismic ruptures. Laboratory experiments will allow to deeply understand which parameters may influence the rupture development and how they are involved in the process. Digital twins will give the chance to explore in great details the fracture processes during crustal earthquakes and investigate faulting mechanism in realistic conditions. The implementation of real-time algorithms for EEW will move the fundamental knowledge beyond the scientific research, becoming a tool to reduce the risk during major earthquakes.
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