
handle: 10261/226720
We estimated the aggregate prevalence over time for Europe and the Northeast US to characterize the COVID-19 second surge in these regions. We find a starting date as early as July 3 (95 %CI: July 2 - July 5) for Europe (Schengen Area) and August 19 (95 %CI: August 16 - August 22) for the Northeast US; subsequent infectious populations that, as of December 7, have always increased or remained stagnant; and the resurgences being the collective effect of each overall region with no one country or state dominating the dynamics by itself.
J.M.G.V. acknowledges support from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion under grant PGC2018-101282-B-I00 (MCI/AEI/FEDER, UE). L.S. acknowledges support from the University of California, Davis.
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