Volcanoes are amongst the most powerful and dangerous natural manifestations on Earth. Eight million people live in the shadow of volcanoes. Bettering our current understanding of volcano system behaviour to improve hazard assessment and risk mitigation is therefore imperative for scientists and governmental authorities operating in active volcanic areas. The primary goal of this project is to create an empirically constrained quantitative description of magma vesiculation and crystallisation kinetics and to apply this to address key volcanological questions through a numerical model framework and observations of the natural system. To this aim, we will combine in situ 4D (time+space) synchrotron x-ray microtomographic experiments to visualise and quantify magma crystallisation and degassing at HPHT with state-of-the-art numerical modelling and observations of natural volcanic textures. This approach will revolutionise experimental petrology and volcanology and will create a paradigm shift in the ability to understand, quantify and forecast volcanic eruptions and their impact on society and climate. To achieve this goal, we plan to exploit the potential of a new x-ray transparent IHPV (internally heated pressure vessel), which is deployed in the framework of another grant, to address fundamental questions that have puzzled Earth scientists for decades: 1) what is the relationship between magma dynamics and transport at depth and the volcanic activity and signals that we watch at the surface? 2) how and why do transitions between explosive and effusive volcanic activity occur and how can we model and predict them? By exploiting the new IHPV, we will perform studies on magma vesiculation and crystallisation kinetics, which play a key role in such transitions, by applying in situ 4D x-ray computed microtomography imaging to magmas of different compositions, volatile and crystal content. The results of the 4D experiments on magma kinetics at the micro scale will be used to derive improved empirical laws of magma viscosity under evolving crystallisation and vesiculation conditions as a function of cooling and decompression rates, and then will be implemented with these latter into a large scale multiphase, multicomponent numerical model of the physical behaviour of magma in volcanic conduits. The model will be developed at the University of Manchester in collaboration with colleagues from the US. The overall findings will be then validated by, and compared with, observations and measurements from well studied natural volcanic eruptions in Italy and Reunion, which both host hazardous, inhabited active volcanic areas. In the event of an eruption, which is likely to happen on Reunion within the time frame of the project, the model will be used in collaboration with the local volcano observatory to constrain eruption forecasting and evolution in real time. With this holistic approach, the research project will generate an exceptionally reliable tool for investigating and quantifying volcano dynamics in both quiescent and eruptive conditions. Such tool will be used by volcano observatories/stakeholders before and during eruption breakout for tracking changes in volcano surface phenomena (i.e., deformation) and eruptive style and make predictions on the eruption evolution. The multidisciplinary, ground-breaking, scientific nature of the project will have a very strong positive impact on the future of volcanology in the UK, and will increase the UK potential over worldwide research. Ultimately, by exploiting the full potential of the new experimental apparatus, the project will produce a key experimental resource in the UK for future, novel investigations involving scientists from different areas of expertise within natural sciences and engineering.

Describe the research in simple terms in a way that could be publicised to a general audience. This will be made publicly available, and Applicants are responsible for ensuring that the content is suitable for publication. No more than, 4000 characters including spaces and returns. Seismic hazards endanger both human lives and critical infrastructure, underscoring the need for a more profound understanding of earthquake dynamics and precise risk assessment, especially in regions prone to infrequent, long-recurrence events. Globally, earthquakes predominantly cluster along tectonic plate boundaries, where heightened seismic risk is acknowledged despite the lack of precise information on location and timing of earthquakes. Conversely, intraplate regions, situated away from these boundaries, also experience significant earthquakes, presenting a distinct challenge due to their rarity. Notably, these seismically active intraplate regions often coincide with large urban centres, amplifying potential risks. Key features that distinguish interplate and intraplate earthquakes include (1) variations in the stress on the fault that drives slip; (2) earthquake magnitude-frequency distributions - the number of small earthquakes in a region relative to large earthquakes; and (3) source parameters that dictate the severity of an earthquake, including the stress drop, duration of the event, and precursory phases that occur immediately preceding earthquakes. Investigating these distinctions and the underlying reasons responsible for them, as well as documenting historical earthquake events, holds promise for both a more comprehensive understanding of earthquakes and a pathway to enhanced regional seismic hazard assessment. Our project is dedicated to exploring the fundamental physics of earthquake rupture and documenting historical earthquakes within the Indian subcontinent including the public and state response to these events. These endeavours are inextricably linked and involve distinguishing the characteristic features between interplate and intraplate regions through a combination of laboratory experiments, borehole stress measurements, and seismic monitoring, and developing better records of historical seismicity and the response to it. By scrutinizing stress conditions, rock properties, earthquake magnitudes, source characteristics, and infrequent historical events, we aim to elevate the precision of risk analysis in key regions within India. The knowledge gained from these activities will be brought together to craft an educational and outreach initiative aimed at both the general population (through schools) and local government through education on the scientific and historical nature of earthquake hazard and development of tools to improve decision making. The program will heighten public awareness regarding earthquake risks, promote straightforward life-saving measures, and develop better planning to prepare and deal with future seismic hazard.

Project ESCAPE: Engaging Science and the Creative Arts to Prepare for Eruptions We propose to advance scientific decision-making by incorporating arts-based methods that have been successful in the field of social change. The threat from volcanoes offers an untried opportunity to test our proposal. The extent of the threat is under-estimated in society because the most severe eruptions occur from volcanoes that have remained silent for centuries. The quiescence is long enough for the experience of previous eruptions to have been forgotten. Molten rock, or magma, cannot be seen below the surface and its presence must be inferred by the effect it has on the rock around it: for example, by moving the ground, triggering small earthquakes and releasing volcanic gases through the surface. Scientists have to use the indirect signals to decide whether an eruption is likely. They create mental models to visualise the processes operating underground. The models are not impartial and rely on imagination to connect the signals that can be measured. The connections are influenced by personal knowledge, experience and emotion, as well as scientific uncertainty, so that mental models often differ among individuals: implicit assumptions remain hidden, decision-making is compromised and disagreement risks turning a crisis into a disaster. Participatory theatre has a demonstrated capacity to influence emotional responses to events. Participants use live action to rehearse real experiences. The approach focuses on the emotional and cognitive factors that drive disagreement, in order to reveal unconscious bias and resolve apparently intransigent views. The method naturally complements conventional science-based procedures for eliciting factual knowledge from experts and has been highly successful in fields as diverse as social justice, legislation and healthcare. We will apply participatory theatre to scientific experts who have the responsibility of interpreting volcanic unrest under time-limited conditions of high stress. For our pilot study we have assembled an interdisciplinary team of theatre practitioners (from RADA), volcanologists (from UCL and the University of Portsmouth), and social scientists (from the University of Cambridge) to trial the procedure with scientists monitoring the Campi Flegrei volcano, which, next to Naples in southern Italy, has been showing signs of unrest for the first time since it last erupted nearly five centuries ago. Theatre, volcanology and social science cover the respective remits of the research councils AHRC, NERC and ESRC. The results will have immediate, real-world application to forecasting eruptions and advising the civil authorities on their plans to protect vulnerable communities; they will deliver a sustainable training strategy that embeds interdisciplinary thinking into how to evaluate incomplete information - to improve the quality of evaluation, raise awareness of unconscious bias, and promote a culture of valuing information beyond a single field of expertise; and they will effect transformation across the arts-science divide by raising mutual recognition of how artistic and scientific creativity can be combined to forge new understandings of the world around us.