There are three potential ways in which organisms can respond to changing environments: (1) they may disperse, or migrate, (2) they may evolve so that they adapt to the new environment, or (3) they may produce different phenotypes - in other words display phenotypic plasticity - as the environment changes. A contemporary example relates to understanding responses of populations to climate change. Work to date suggests that, despite the three mechanisms being non-exclusive, population responses to climate change usually involve phenotypic plasticity. Hence, understanding the evolutionary forces acting on plasticity is of central importance in our understanding of viability in the face of climate change. Understanding of phenotypic plasticity and its role in adaptation to changing environments is hampered by the fact that most studies simply correlate an average phenotype for the population with a single value for the environment, most often at the level of an entire year. This only makes sense if the environmental cues to which organisms respond are very large-scale cues, varying little from the perspective of individuals within populations. However, we know that many organisms experience only a limited part of the environment, and that the environment may vary over quite small spatial scales. Despite this, we don't understand how animals balance these small- and large-scale cues. The central aim of this research is thus to determine how the spatial scale of the environment is important in understanding the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Our model system involves reproductive behaviour in small woodland birds - great tits, breeding in Wytham Woods near Oxford - which are under strong natural selection to time their reproduction to coincide with peaks in abundance of moth caterpillars (e.g. the winter moth) that are adapted to feed on newly emerged leaves of deciduous trees. At the population level there is a good match between the timing of birds' breeding and the peak of caterpillar abundance, but there is tremendous variation within each year in the timing of these events over quite a small spatial scale. Furthermore, we have evidence that, despite a common temperature trend, different parts of the population are responding at different rates. Hence, the population level summary statistics disguise several important levels of variation. We will use long term data on breeding behaviour and fitness, together with detailed environmental data to analyse the spatial scales at which variation in bird reproductive timing can best be explained, and to test hypotheses about the influence of scale on fitness and population dynamics. We will then supplement these data with new data collected across a regular grid of locations to determine phenology of bud-burst and caterpillar abundance, and hence characterise the extent to which birds are able to match the timing of events in their environment at different scales. Because we expect multiple scales to be important, we can make the prediction that the optimal phenotype is a balance between small- and large-scale plasticity, and hence that adaptation will not be perfect at either scale in isolation. Because the environment is patchy, we can further predict that adjusting to small- as well as large-scale cues will lead to some patches having higher productivity than others; hence the spatial scale of plasticity will lead to within population variation in population dynamics. Collecting environmental data on the ground is very time-consuming, and only limited areas can be covered; therefore we will test the extent to which satellite images can be used to estimate phenology at scales that are relevant to organisms in nature. Finally, we will carry out experimental tests of whether mis-matches in phenology between birds and the environment, which have been implicated in population declines in some species, are alleviated by being in more varied environments.

Climate change and related extremes represent one of the most significant challenges of the twenty-first century. Yet lived experiences of climate change vary, with negative impacts disproportionately felt by marginalised populations who have historically contributed the least per capita emissions. The proposed study advances understanding of an under-researched topic within this urgent context: the role of colonial power and knowledge in shaping climate adaptation and vulnerability past and present. Current analyses and practices of adaptation rarely investigate deep histories of colonialism and repeated disaster, but a historical lens is particularly vital here as there is now mounting concern that today's adaptation strategies are resurrecting ideas and initiatives propagated through colonialism, for example by undermining local adaptation strategies (Eriksen et al. 2021; Gengenbach et al. 2022). At worst, this risks reproducing rather than reducing the vulnerability of populations that are already on the frontline of the climate crisis (Schipper 2020). This research aims to build new, usable pasts of climate and society in three regions of southern Africa (southern Mozambique, western Zimbabwe, southern Malawi), where the imperative of climate change adaptation has been underscored by recent cyclone and drought disasters. Specifically, it will draw upon diverse archival collections to examine the origins and transformation of climate knowledges and adaptation practices during the 19th and early-20th centuries, when colonial rule intensified. Together with project partners and local stakeholders, it further aims to elevate this historical knowledge of climate coloniality into new interaction with climate foresight to drive equitable and sustainable adaptation. The data and findings generated from these historical deep dives will be interrogated through fresh theoretical and empirical lenses, addressing the following research questions: 1) How did climate coloniality emerge in different settings via the (re)construction of climate knowledges and imposition of material practices? 2) What was the multidirectional nature of interaction between climate knowledges, adaptation strategies and recurring climatic extremes? 3) How did Africans resist or influence climate thinking amongst Westerners despite colonial relations of power? 4) How can these climate histories be integrated into climate foresight planning and scenarios to drive equitable and sustainable climate change adaptation? The study is transdisciplinary in scope, spanning environmental and climate history, historical geography, climate foresight, African studies, historical climatology, disaster studies, climate science and the history of science; fields that will be drawn upon and integrated. The scale of the research will yield the place-based insights needed to develop geographically and culturally specific climate histories, but also the comparative understanding required to develop a theoretical framework of the emergence of climate coloniality. This mixture of approaches will create innovation in the environmental humanities, and - through its impact - help place the SHAPE (Social Sciences, Humanities and the Arts for People and the Economy/Environment) disciplines at the fore of efforts to address climate change. The working practices and theoretical framework developed through the project will have wider transferability across former colonial contexts, boosted through the project's partnerships with the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and leading foresight planners.

Indigenous Peoples (IPs) are believed to be at particularly high risk from COVID, exacerbated by climate risks and socio-economic stresses. There is emerging evidence that national responses to the pandemic are compounding the vulnerability of IPs, exacerbated by little--if any--understanding on the unique pathways through which COVID will affect IPs. This project will address this knowledge and policy gap by documenting, monitoring, and examining how COVID is interacting with multiple stresses to affect the food systems of IPs globally, co-generating knowledge and capacity to strengthen resilience. Our focus on food reflects the fact that many of the risks posed by COVID stem from interactions with food systems, which for IPs are composed of a mix of traditional and modern elements. The work will be undertaken in collaboration with 24 distinct Indigenous peoples in 14 countries, and is structured around objectives which will: document the emergence of COVID and examine its impacts on food systems to-date; monitor and examine the real-time lived experiences, responses, and observations on COVIDs impact on food systems; compile and assess how COVID is being officially communicated and responded to; identify, examine, and promote interventions to strengthen resilience; and examine scalable insights for vulnerable populations across LMICs. Qualitative data collection is underpinned by a network of 'COVID Observers' within communities, in decision making roles, and researchers already located in the study regions, who will document their experiences and observations in reflective diaries over a 12 month period, capturing different stages of the pandemic and how multiple factors interact over time to create vulnerability and resilience. The global scope of the work builds upon ongoing and completed projects by team members in the study regions, leveraging considerable capacity and networks developed in work funded by DFID, UKRI, Wellcome Trust, FAO, and IDRC, among others.

In good condition, peatlands are the most efficient carbon store of all soils. They regulate freshwater supply (peatlands are 95% water) and quality, mitigate climate change by storing greenhouse gases, and maintain biodiversity. Land use management interventions (e.g. use of peat for agriculture, drainage, forestry, burning for game management and recreation) can compromise the delivery of all these services by destabilising the vast carbon store that peat has locked away over thousands of years. The UK has 2 Mha of peatlands (10% land area), however, up to 80% of these peatlands are damaged to some degree. It is estimated that degraded UK peatlands emit 10 Mt C a-1, a similar magnitude to oil refineries or landfill sites, placing the UK among the top 20 countries for emissions of carbon from degrading peat. Restoring degraded peatlands to halt carbon losses is an essential part of a global strategy to fight climate change. However, to date, we do not have a tool to help us assess how land use affects peatland condition in a cost effective manner over large and often remote areas, making it difficult to identify which areas should be prioritised for management intervention. In the UK, several millions of pounds of public money have already been invested in large-scale peatland restoration projects yet we do not have a reliable and robust way to evaluate the effectiveness of restoration. These are important gaps in our knowledge that prevent us from being able to make cost-effective choices when it comes to peatland management With this project, we will develop new statistical methods to detect change in the condition of peatland landscapes from data collected by satellites. In a previous research project, we showed that peatland condition can be found from satellite data that measures surface motion of the peat. A wet peat in good condition displays very different characteristics to dry peat in poor condition. However, our satellite-based approach produces too much complex data that cannot be reliably and consistently analysed by eye. We aim to inform peatland management decisions by developing a new statistical method that can robustly and consistently quantify the changes in the peatland landscape from the satellite data. This requires methods capable of handling extremely large and complex structured datasets. In statistics, a new framework, known as Object-Oriented Data Analysis (OODA), is ideally suited to achieve this purpose by building models based on suitable choices of data objects. OODA can be used for developing parsimonious models for detecting change, and for quantifying uncertainty in predictions. OODA of the satellite data as functions of space and time will enable the modelling of trends and variability in the different regions, and the detection of reg change in the peatland. Our project will develop the OODA method further than its current capabilities and apply this method to the satellite datasets of peat surface motion. The result will be a series of maps that illustrate the change in peatland landscape over time that are designed to be used by land managers and policy makers to guide decision making. This will help reduce unnecessary spending and prioritise the most urgent and strategic areas for peat restoration. Our novel approach combining state-of-the-art statistical methods with satellite data will provide a reliable tool to evaluate investments in peat restoration and report to funding bodies. The ability to quantify changes in the peat landscape using statistics should provide confidence to peatland managers and to those who fund and invest in peatland restoration, enabling them to make better choices for peatlands.

To secure a continued supply of safe, tasty, affordable and functional/healthy proteins while supporting Net Zero goals and future-proofing UK food security, a phased-transition towards low-emission alternative proteins (APs) with a reduced reliance on animal agriculture is imperative. However, population-level access to and acceptance of APs is hindered by a highly complex marketplace challenged by taste, cost, health and safety concerns for consumers, and the fear of diminished livelihoods by farmers. Furthermore, complex regulatory pathways and limited access to affordable and accessible scale-up infrastructure impose challenges for industry and SMEs in particular. Synergistic bridging of the UK's trailblazing science and innovation strengths in AP with manufacturing power is key to realising the UK's ambitious growth potential in AP of £6.8B annually and could create 25,000 jobs across multiple sectors. The National Alternative Protein Innovation Centre (NAPIC), a cohesive pan-UK centre, will revolutionise the UK's agri-food sector by harnessing our world-leading science base through a co-created AP strategy across the Discovery?Innovation?Commercialisation pipeline to support the transition to a sustainable, high growth, blended protein bioeconomy using a consumer-driven approach, thereby changing the economics for farmers and other stakeholders throughout the supply chain. Built on four interdisciplinary knowledge pillars, PRODUCE, PROCESS, PERFORM and PEOPLE covering the entire value chain of AP, we will enable an efficacious and safe translation of new transformative technologies unlocking the benefits of APs. Partnering with global industry, regulators, investors, academic partners and policymakers, and engaging in an open dialogue with UK citizens, NAPIC will produce a clear roadmap for the development of a National Protein Strategy for the UK. NAPIC will enable us to PRODUCE tasty, nutritious, safe, and affordable AP foods and feedstocks necessary to safeguard present and future generations, while reducing concerns about ultra-processed foods and assisting a just-transition for producers. Our PROCESS Pillar will catalyse bioprocessing at scale, mainstreaming cultivated meat and precision fermentation, and diversify AP sources across the terrestrial and aquatic kingdoms of life, delivering economies of scale. Delivering a just-transition to an AP-rich future, we will ensure AP PERFORM, both pre-consumption, and post-consumption, safeguarding public health. Finally, NAPIC is all about PEOPLE, guiding a consumers' dietary transition, and identifying new business opportunities for farmers, future-proofing the UK's protein supply against reliance on imports. Working with UK industry, the third sector and academia, NAPIC will create a National Knowledge base for AP addressing the unmet scientific, commercial, technical and regulatory needs of the sector, develop new tools and standards for product quality and safety and simplify knowledge transfer by catalysing collaboration. NAPIC will ease access to existing innovation facilities and hubs, accelerating industrial adoption underpinned by informed regulatory pathways. We will develop the future leaders of this rapidly evolving sector with bespoke technical, entrepreneurial, regulatory and policy training, and promote knowledge exchange through our unrivalled international network of partners across multiple continents including Protein Industries Canada and the UK-Irish Co-Centre, SUREFOOD. NAPIC will provide a robust and sustainable platform of open innovation and responsible data exchange that mitigates risks associated with this emerging sector and addresses concerns of consumers and producers. Our vision is to make "alternative proteins mainstream for a sustainable planet" and our ambition is to deliver a world-leading innovation and knowledge centre to put the UK at the forefront of the fights for population health equity and against climate change.