This project will develop a decision-support system (DSS) for disaster risk management by considering multiple interacting natural hazards and cascading impacts using a novel resilient-informed and service-oriented approach that accounts for forecasted modifications in the hazard (e.g., climate change), vulnerability/resilience (e.g., aging structures and populations) and exposure (e.g., population decrease/increase). The primary deliverable from MEDiate will be a decision support framework in the form of service-orientated web tool and accompanying disaster risk management framework providing end users (local authorities, businesses etc) with the ability to build accurate scenarios to model the potential impact of their mitigation and adaptation risk management actions. The scenarios, which can be customised to reflect local conditions and needs (e.g., demographics, deprivation, natural resources etc), will be based on a combination of the historical record and future climate change projections to forecast the location and intensity of climate related disaster events and to predict their impacts, including cascading impacts, on the vulnerability of the local physical, economic and social systems. The scenarios will allow end users to evaluate the potential impact of different risk management strategies to reduce vulnerability and enhance community resilience. The project will consist of analysis of relevant data and co-development with testbed decision-makers of a DSS to enable more reliable resilience assessments, accounting for risk mitigation and adaptive capabilities, to be made, therefore reducing losses (human, financial, environmental etc) from future climate-related and geophysical disasters. The project will involve a multi-disciplinary team of geophysical and meteorological scientists, risk engineers, social scientists, information technologists and end-users, working together to ensure that the system is user-led and supported by appropriate technology.

The HuT will employ innovative disaster risk reduction solutions, accounting for the potential variations induced by climate change. This will involve integrating and leveraging best practices and successful multi-disciplinary experiences that have been recently developed within various territorial contexts by leading European research groups, institutions, and stakeholders, to deal with extreme climate events. The project’s main ambition beyond the state of the art is to promote the “best set” of trans-disciplinary risk management tools and approaches that could be adopted and used extensively across Europe, in as many situations as possible. The activities of the project will be developed considering the following main critical dimensions: trans-disciplinarity, systemic risk, co-production, cross-fertilization, transferability, and long-term legacy. A set of ten demonstrators will constitute a multi-hazard arena wherein possible disastrous events associated with climate extremes will be dealt with jointly by representatives of the scientific and technical communities, practitioners, policy-makers and local communities. The events associated to climate extremes that will be considered in this project are: forest fires, including wildland urban interface fires; meteorological/hydrological/agricultural droughts, including associated water shortage; heatwaves; weather-induced landslides, including debris flows; fluvial and pluvial floods; storms, including heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms, and storm surges. The HuT will mainly focus on the prevention and preparedness phases of the disaster risk management cycle, explicitly considering climate change scenarios and integrating the proposed set of solutions, for the various events considered, over short- (from days to several months) and long-term (from years to decades) time horizons.

NATALIE addresses the risks posed by climate change and its impacts and proposes to advance the concepts of “ecosystem-based adaptation” in Europe combined with climate resilient development pathways, as the means for impact driven Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), to accelerate and mainstreaming the adoption of NBS for resilience to climate change, which is also the cornerstone identified in the recent IPCC AR6 WGII Report. NATALIE will deliver innovative and practical innovations in co-creation of solutions and stakeholder engagement, modelling, testing, monitoring and validation mechanisms that will support regions and municipalities to plan and develop adaptation actions bringing along valuable knowledge and experience as actionable knowledge for adaptation and impact-driven NBS. To achieve this goal, NATALIE will develop a transformative NBS booster pack of 25 solutions (innovative actions that address the key six levers for transformative change: (1) socially acceptable, smart and financial innovative solutions; (2) societal, stakeholder and citizen engagement; (3) larger systemic solutions at regional level; 4) monitoring, evaluation and cost-benefit analysis of solutions; 5) pre-feasibility study; 6) evidence-based outcomes and recommendations). The main goal is to accelerate and foster the mainstreaming of NBS, by forming an ecosystem based adaptation for regional resilience. The booster Innovation Package includes innovative technical, modelling and IT solutions (including an innovative NBS knowledge booster and digital twin), governance, policy recommendations at EU and regional level, financing and public engagement transformative solutions. 18 NBS measures will be demonstrated at 8 case studies, in different biogeographical regions of Europe in Greece, Romania, Latvia, Canary Islands, Belgium (Flanders), France, Iceland and Italy (Veneto region), as well as four follower regions in the Balearic Islands, Romania, France and Lithuania).