Traditional chemical risk assessment relies on undertaking laboratory ecotoxicity studies, but can only assume what the population or ecosystem functioning consequences might be. We aim to move beyond these current limitations by interrogating wildlife population data (terrestrial, freshwater and marine) in the context of chemical exposure in a way that will progress the field. Our high-level aim is to identify which populations and environments are doing well under the current chemical regime and which are not. This will allow the UK to focus its research where the greatest wildlife declines are occurring and bring clarity to the issue of chemical risk in the environment that continues to cause great uncertainty. Only a few studies have exploited Britain's long-term wildlife population data with regards to the influence of chemical exposure. Chemical exposures we will examine will include pesticides in the terrestrial and freshwater environments, the chemical mixture in sewage effluent, metals and persistent organic pollutants. We will be looking at macroinvertebrates and fishes in our rivers, invertebrates and sparrowhawks on land and cetaceans (dolphins and killer whales) off our coasts. These environments and species represent current concerns across the natural environment for both diffuse and point source pollution. We will focus on species and taxa that are either core providers of ES or represent aspects of native biodiversity identified by the public as important to societal wellbeing. There are many stressors and compensating factors other than chemicals that can influence wildlife populations. We will incorporate such factors into our analyses to assess their role and significance and thus also address the research question: How important are chemical stressors in relation to other pressures in the environment? By comparing long-term and spatially explicit trends in natural populations, with the response predicted by classical ecotoxicity as reported in the literature, we will evaluate whether such tests are indicative of impacts in the wild. This is essential to assess to what extent traditional risk assessments, typical of those used in the Water Framework and similar Directives, are predictive of outcomes for wildlife populations in terrestrial, freshwater or marine environments.

Traditional chemical risk assessment relies on undertaking laboratory ecotoxicity studies, but can only assume what the population or ecosystem functioning consequences might be. We aim to move beyond these current limitations by interrogating wildlife population data (terrestrial, freshwater and marine) in the context of chemical exposure in a way that will progress the field. Our high-level aim is to identify which populations and environments are doing well under the current chemical regime and which are not. This will allow the UK to focus its research where the greatest wildlife declines are occurring and bring clarity to the issue of chemical risk in the environment that continues to cause great uncertainty. Only a few studies have exploited Britain's long-term wildlife population data with regards to the influence of chemical exposure. Chemical exposures we will examine will include pesticides in the terrestrial and freshwater environments, the chemical mixture in sewage effluent, metals and persistent organic pollutants. We will be looking at macroinvertebrates and fishes in our rivers, invertebrates and sparrowhawks on land and cetaceans (dolphins and killer whales) off our coasts. These environments and species represent current concerns across the natural environment for both diffuse and point source pollution. We will focus on species and taxa that are either core providers of ES or represent aspects of native biodiversity identified by the public as important to societal wellbeing. There are many stressors and compensating factors other than chemicals that can influence wildlife populations. We will incorporate such factors into our analyses to assess their role and significance and thus also address the research question: How important are chemical stressors in relation to other pressures in the environment? By comparing long-term and spatially explicit trends in natural populations, with the response predicted by classical ecotoxicity as reported in the literature, we will evaluate whether such tests are indicative of impacts in the wild. This is essential to assess to what extent traditional risk assessments, typical of those used in the Water Framework and similar Directives, are predictive of outcomes for wildlife populations in terrestrial, freshwater or marine environments.

A Water Quality Forecaster using citizen observatories The Water Quality Forecaster will build upon the NERC-funded POLLCURB project (www.pollcurb.ceh.ac.uk), emerging technologies and recent developments in citizen observatories. The initial Pathfinder project will explore the mechanisms of support from public, private and NGO partners towards a larger scale programme to improve water quality diagnostics and monitoring of UK rivers, with specific focus on the Lower River Thames. The Pathfinder project will: 1. identify the most pertinent stakeholders for whom outputs from predictive river quality models for an improved and timely information on river water quality would be of value. 2. define the optimal combination of new sensor technologies and community scientist participation to improve model output and build local support for an improved catchment management 3. explore online platforms and new tools to allow stakeholders real-time access to forecasting results and information for decision support. The project will focus on building support for the ongoing activities of all three partners arising from the POLLCURB project, exploring the impacts of long term changes in urban extent on water flows and quality in the lower Thames catchment. For the Pathfinder, CEH researchers and partners will optimise POLLCURB project products for use by potential private, public and NGO end users. This will require interactions with the partners (workshops), additional data collection through an expanded network and optimisation of sensor and online technologies. The workplan has a 6 month period of execution.

Due to their vast numbers and diversity, insects dominate natural ecosystems and processes. Wholesale insect declines could have profound consequences. Yet despite growing public concern about a possible "insect Armageddon," evidence of widespread insect declines remains fragmentary, even in the UK (arguably one of the best studied countries on Earth); nor do we understand the value that insects provide for wider society. A far stronger evidence-base is required to provide a secure basis for policy, to devise methods to reverse insect declines and protect the roles that insects play in multiple ecosystem services. We have assembled four of the UK's leading insect dynamics research teams to assess the causes, consequences and potential remedies of insect declines. We will combine data from standardised insect monitoring programmes of a wide range of taxa, modelled outputs of biodiversity databases, and novel assays using weather radar signals to assess shifts in insect abundance, diversity, functional composition and biomass in both terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems across Britain. Species-level trend data will be assessed relative to a range of potential driver variables and species' traits in an overarching synthesis of decline patterns across taxa and environments. The team has unrivalled access to the latest UK datasets and modelling developments covering insects and environmental drivers down to 1-km resolution or finer, through a wide range of on-going environmental research projects and collaborating partner organisations. Our results will be used to inform mechanistic models to predict the dynamics of insect species and functional-groups across the UK in space and time. Functional consequences of insect declines will be assessed, with particular focus on trophic roles as prey in aerial (bird/bat) and aquatic (fish) systems, pollination and pest control functions, and in nutrient transport between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. How alterations in insect communities are linked to economic and cultural values will be assessed through a review of existing studies, augmented with participatory valuation approaches for ecosystem services that are poorly studied, such as cultural services. The population, community and functional models developed above will be applied to a diverse set of contrasting future climate, land-use and policy scenarios, to predict insect dynamics with and without specific mitigation measures. Both scenarios and mitigation options will be co-designed together with relevant stakeholders and linked to existing climate scenarios and planned agri-environmental schemes. Consequences of recent past, current and future scenarios for human welfare and natural capital will be estimated, using stakeholder-based valuations. Our novel, integrated approach will guarantee high quality and high impact research outputs, which will be widely disseminated to the scientific and stakeholder communities, and the general public. By engaging relevant policy and decision-makers at an early stage of the project, results will be tailored and directly relevant to on-going policy development in land management, biodiversity conservation and the implementation of natural capital approaches, maximising the likelihood of substantial impacts on both society and the natural world.