The global scientific community considers the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to be the most significant risk for coastal environments and cities, given its potentially large contribution to future sea-level rise. The risk posed by the WAIS is exacerbated because it is in direct contact with the warming ocean and because its reverse bed slope makes the ice vulnerable to a prolonged unstable retreat. Although scientists have been aware of the precarious setting of the WAIS since the early 1970s, it is only now becoming apparent that the flow of ice in several large drainage basins is undergoing dynamic change, which is consistent with - although not certain to be - the beginning of a sustained and potentially unstoppable disintegration. Two of the fundamental global challenges facing the scientific community today include understanding the controls on the stability of the WAIS, and enabling a more accurate prediction of sea-level rise through improved computer simulations of ice flow. In the TIME project, we directly address both challenges by: a) using frontier technologies to observe rapidly deforming shear margins hypothesized to exert strong control on the future evolution of ice flow in the Thwaites Glacier drainage basin, and b) using observational records to develop parameterisations for important processes which are yet to be implemented in the ice sheet models used to predict the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise. TIME will test the key hypothesis that the future evolution of ice flow through the Thwaites Glacier drainage basin is governed by the dynamics of the shear margins that separate the fast flowing glacier from the slow-moving ice that surrounds it. To test the hypothesis the team will set up an ice observatory at two sites on the eastern shear margin of Thwaites Glacier. The team argues that weak topographic control makes this shear margin susceptible to outward migration and, possibly, sudden jumps in response to the drawdown of inland ice when the grounding line of Thwaites Glacier retreats. The ice observatory is designed to produce new and comprehensive constraints on important englacial properties, which include ice deformation rates, ice crystal fabric, ice viscosity, ice temperature, ice liquid-water content and basal melt rates. The ice observatory will also establish basal conditions, including thickness and porosity of any subglacial sediment layer and the deeper marine sediments. Furthermore, the team will develop new knowledge with an unparalleled emphasis on the consequences of variations in these properties for ice flow, including a direct assessment of the spatial and temporal scales on which they vary. These knowledge will be obtained from interdisciplinary field-based geophysical platforms, including 3D active-source seismic surveys, 2D active-source seismic transects, networks of GPS and complementary passive broadband seismometers, and autonomous radar systems deployed with phased arrays to detect rapidly deforming internal layers and liquid water in the ice and at the bed. Datasets will be incorporated into numerical models developed on different spatial scales. One will focus specifically on shear margin dynamics, the other on how shear margin dynamics can influence ice flow in the whole drainage basin. Upon completion, the project will have confirmed whether the eastern shear margin of Thwaites Glacier can migrate rapidly, as hypothesised, and if so what the impacts will be in terms of sea level rise in this century and beyond.

Global climate change is one of the big challenges society faces today. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and evident from observations of increasing global average temperatures. Warming is also observed in the oceans, and is accompanied by a change in salinity, with the high latitudes becoming 'fresher' (i.e., less saline) and the subtropics and tropics becoming more saline - a redistribution of properties that has the potential to affect ocean circulation. There are also clear effects of climate change on the chemistry of the oceans. Whilst increased uptake of more abundant atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to an acidification of the oceans that threatens marine ecosystems, only little is known about the effects of higher concentrations of certain trace metals, as a result of anthropogenic pollution and changing erosion patterns on land. Such changes are very important, however, as the ability of the ocean to take up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is strongly coupled to the supply of so-called nutrients, elements that are essential for life in the ocean. As part of this project, we will develop a better understanding of such 'biogeochemical cycles'. We picked out three trace metals, neodymium (Nd), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb), which together represent the behaviour of many different elements in the ocean. For example, both Cd and Pb are today supplied to the environment by human activity and this may alter their natural cycles. As Cd is an important micronutrient in the ocean, such changes could also affect the global carbon cycle. As part of our project, a PhD student will focus on understanding whether the natural flux of dust from desert areas to the ocean and the anthropogenic particles the dust scavenges in the atmosphere have an important impact on the marine Cd and Pb cycles. The student will furthermore study, how the cycling of these elements in the ocean is altered by changing oxygen concentrations. Oxygen is (next to the nutrients) another important player in biogeochemical cycles, and its solubility in seawater is temperature dependent. Climate models predict that extended zones with low oxygen concentrations will develop in the future oceans. Another important aspect of the ocean system is that ocean currents are the key mechanism for distributing heat, and thus they have a significant impact on regional and local climate. Furthermore, water mass movements (both vertical and lateral) are very important for the carbon cycle, as the deep ocean contains 50-60 times more carbon than the atmosphere. Today we can monitor ocean circulation by measuring the physical properties of seawater. Observations over the past 50 years, however, do not give us any clear indication whether the pattern of ocean circulation is changing. From studies of the past we know, however, that ocean water masses had a different configuration during the ice ages and past periods of extreme warmth. Neodymium isotopes in seawater are often used for such reconstructions, and the results show stunning relationships between past temperatures, carbon dioxide levels, and ocean circulation. A patchy understanding the modern Nd cycle however limits our confidence in such reconstructions, and thus our ability to transfer the inferred mechanisms to future models. In particular, it is generally assumed that away from ocean margins, Nd isotopes are an ideal ocean circulation tracer as they are only modified by mixing between water masses. However, there are many potential marine processes, which may not be in accord with this simplistic view. Such uncertainties will be addressed by the current project, based on a comprehensive suite of new observational data that will be collected for samples from strategic locations in the Atlantic Ocean. In conjunction with modelling efforts, our new data will shed light on the processes governing the marine Nd cycle and the suitability of Nd isotopes as circulation tracer.

Following the polar amplification of global warming in recent decades, we have witnessed unprecedented changes in the coverage and seasonality of Arctic sea ice, enhanced freshwater storage within the Arctic seas, and greater nutrient demand from pelagic primary producers as the annual duration of open-ocean increases. These processes have the potential to change the phenology, species composition, productivity, and nutritional value of Arctic sea ice algal blooms, with far-reaching implications for trophic functioning and carbon cycling in the marine system. As the environmental conditions of the Arctic continue to change, the habitat for ice algae will become increasingly disrupted. Ice algal blooms, which are predominantly species of diatom, provide a concentrated food source for aquatic grazers while phytoplankton growth in the water column is limited, and can contribute up to half of annual Arctic marine primary production. Conventionally ice algae have been studied as a single community, without discriminating between individual species. However, the composition of species can vary widely between regions, and over the course of the spring, as a function of local environmental forcing. Consequently, current approaches for estimating Arctic-wide marine productivity and predicting the impact of climate warming on ice algal communities are likely inaccurate because they overlook the autecological (species-specific) responses of sea ice algae to changing ice habitat conditions. Diatom-ARCTIC will mark a new chapter in the study of sea ice algae and their production in the Arctic. Our project goes beyond others by integrating the results derived from field observations of community composition, and innovative laboratory experiments targeted at single-species of ice algae, directly into a predictive biogeochemical model. The use of a Remotely-Operated Vehicle during in situ field sampling gives us a unique opportunity to examine the spatio-temporal environmental controls on algal speciation in natural sea ice. Diatom-ARCTIC field observations will steer laboratory experiments to identify photophysiological responses of individual diatom species over a range of key growth conditions: light, salinity and nutrient availability. Additional experiments will characterise algal lipid composition as a function of growth conditions - quantifying food resource quality as a function of species composition. Furthermore, novel analytical tools, such as gas chromatography mass spectrometry and compound specific isotope analysis will be combined to better catalogue the types of lipid present in ice algae. Field and laboratory results will then be incorporated into the state-of-the-art BFM-SI biogeochemical model for ice algae, to enable accurate simulations of gross and net production in sea ice based on directly observed autecological responses. The model will be used to characterise algal productivity in different sea ice growth habitats present in the contemporary Arctic. By applying future climate scenarios to the model, we will also forecast ice algal productivity over the coming decades as sea ice habitats transform in an evolving Arctic. Our project targets a major research gap in Phase I of the CAO programme: the specific contribution of sea ice habitats to ecosystem structure and biogeochemical functioning within the Arctic Ocean. In doing so, Diatom-ARCTIC brings together and links the activities of ARCTIC-Prize and DIAPOD, while further building new collaborations between UK and German partners leading up to the 2019/20 MOSAiC campaign.

Global warming is rapidly altering ocean temperature, pH, carbon saturation state, circulation, and oxidation state, and this will impact the community composition of phytoplankton; the primary producers in the world's oceans. Predicting which marine phytoplankton species will persist and dominate under these changing environmental conditions requires an understanding of the adaptive evolutionary potential of these species. With this project, we will improve understanding and predictive capability of the dynamics of polar marine phytoplankton communities, especially diatoms, and the limits of their adaptive capacities in response to environmental change driven by global warming. As single-celled microbes with large population sizes and high replication rates, phytoplankton species have considerable potential to adapt rapidly to changing environmental conditions. This can happen by (i) individual organisms adapting their phenotypes through epigenetic processes (i.e. phenotypic plasticity), (ii) by natural selection acting on individual genotypes, and by (iii) group selection (i.e. lineage and species-sorting). These three fundamental levels of selection result in changes in physiology, population genetic composition and community structure, respectively, which in turn can drive changes in both biogeochemical cycles and higher trophic levels. These adaptive changes already occur in the Arctic Ocean, yet existing climate models fail to capture these combined ecological and evolutionary adaptive responses. This proposal aims to address this fundamental gap in knowledge by studying adaptive evolution at the level of the genome, epigenome and transcriptome of a model species for polar diatoms, Fragilariopsis cylindrus, as well as 10 diatom species from the Arctic Ocean. We will thus address how environmental changes such as the loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will impact the adaptive evolution and diversity of key primary producers with consequences for biogeochemical cycles in an ecosystem that is under extreme threat by global warming.

Since the start of the industrial revolution the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has steadily risen. Scientists have confirmed that the recent loss of Arctic sea ice in summer directly follows this rise in human-induced CO2 emissions, reducing from about 7 million km2 of Arctic sea ice in the late 1970s to around 3.5 million km2 in the 2010s. While climate models suggest Antarctic sea ice extent should also reduce in response to rising CO2, satellite observations reveal that during 1979-2015 the opposite was in fact true. The trend in Antarctic sea ice extent has been a small increase of approximately 1.5% per decade. In 2016, however, this increase was abruptly interrupted by a dramatic reduction in sea ice extent that was far outside the previously observed range. Since the extreme event in 2016, Antarctic sea ice extent has almost returned to its pre-2016 values, highlighting the significant variability in Antarctic sea ice conditions that can occur from one year to the next. These variations in sea ice are important to the whole Earth's climate, because they affect the melting of the glacial Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the capture of atmospheric heat and CO2 by the Southern Ocean. The recent extreme swings in Antarctic sea ice extent, and the challenge of accurately predicting, understanding and modelling them, emphasise the need to: (i) increase our knowledge of the processes that drive Antarctic sea ice variations, including extreme events, and (ii) understand the drivers and climate implications of Antarctic sea ice loss over different time-scales, from weeks to decades. To address this knowledge gap requires a significant research programme, one that takes year-round observations, including throughout the harsh Antarctic winter, and is effective in improving the underlying processes in the latest computer climate models. Our project, known as DEFIANT (Drivers and Effects of Fluctuations in sea Ice in the ANTarctic), will embark on one of the most ambitious observational campaigns aimed at understanding Antarctic sea ice variability. Scientific measurements from the German research ship Polarstern, the UK's new polar research ship Sir David Attenborough, the British Antarctic Survey's Rothera research station, aircraft overflights and satellites will work seamlessly together with cutting-edge robotic technologies (including the underwater vehicle Boaty McBoatface and a suite of on-ice buoys) to provide us with comprehensive, year-round measurements of atmosphere, sea ice and ocean. The knowledge gained from these observations will enable our team to develop new ocean and climate models in order to more accurately represent Antarctic sea ice processes. The analysis of these improved models will allow us to better understand the underlying drivers of the sudden decrease in Antarctic sea ice, determine the impact of these extreme events on the global ocean circulation, and forecast the implications for the movements of heat and CO2 through the climate system. By developing new observations, new satellite records, and new models, DEFIANT will deliver a major advance in our understanding of the Antarctic sea ice system and its wider impacts on global climate.