A thorough understanding of extinction events has never been more important as we are entering a biodiversity crisis that is being heralded as the "Sixth Mass Extinction". But are we really heading for a mass extinction and how will this current event compare to the catastrophic biotic crises of the geological past? The geological record provides a wealth of information for studying ecosystem dynamics and collapse under rapid climate change and understanding these events may be key in helping to predict the consequences of anthropogenic warming for existing and future marine ecosystems. One great unanswered extinction question is why do rapid warming events of the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic consistently trigger mass extinction whereas similarly extreme climatic events of the Cenozoic do not? An argument put forward to explain this mismatch is that modern ecosystem structure was established in the early Cenozoic in the aftermath of the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction (66 Ma) and that the reason for the lack of Cenozoic mass extinctions lies in the increased robustness of modern marine ecosystems. However, palaeobiological studies of extinction currently lack critical sources of information about how organisms interact with one another within ecosystems. We know from contemporary ecological studies that interactions between organisms play a pivotal role in the structure, function and resilience of modern ecosystems. Therefore, it makes it very difficult to interpret the dynamics of extinctions and ecosystem collapse across mass extinction events without a good understanding of the biotic interactions within communities. CASCaDE will drive a fundamental change in extinction palaeobiology via a novel and cross-disciplinary approach combining recent advances in ecological modelling with palaeontology. Specifically, we will test the role of marine ecosystem robustness and stability (which is determined by predator/prey interactions in food webs) in determining vulnerability to climate-triggered extinction cascades. We will investigate various periods of rapid global warming in the geological record - some that triggered mass extinction and others that did not. We will use a computer modelling approach to simulate several hypothetical extinction scenarios on fossil ecosystems pre-dating the climatic change events. These scenarios will be developed to represent known environmental stresses associated with rapid greenhouse warming i.e. rise in ocean temperature, ocean anoxia, and ocean acidification. We will then test which hypothetical extinction scenario best predicts post-event ecosystem structure. Specifically, we will test the hypothesis that differences in Palaeozoic/Mesozoic and Cenozoic food web structure and ecosystem resilience interacted with extreme climatic conditions differently leading to wholesale ecosystem collapse in the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic but not in the Cenozoic. We will also explore how uncertainty in the reconstruction of the food webs linked to varying fossil preservation potential might influence out predictions. CASCaDE aims to push quantitative palaeobiology and conservation biology into new territory via modelling biotic interactions within ancient ecosystems and enabling predictions of extinction risk to rapid warming in modern marine ecosystems based upon extreme climatic events and mass extinctions in the distant past. We will apply the most likely scenarios of past climate change extinction cascades to food webs from modern marine ecosystems in order to predict whether anthropogenic global warming is likely to trigger Palaeozoic/Mesozoic-level mass extinction cascades or whether increased Cenozoic ecosystem robustness will buffer the oceans from complete ecosystem collapse.

Climate change represents a challenge to conservation because the species, habitats and other benefits (e.g., soil retention, maintenance of water quality, landscape value) associated with particular nature reserves and other protected areas (e.g. SSSIs) will change. Furthermore, this may undermine the legislative basis of some protected areas that have been designated as important because they support particular species or contain large numbers of individuals of certain species. Government, conservation agencies and volunteers (often through conservation charities) - stakeholders - need to meet this challenge so as to ensure that the limited resources available for conservation are deployed most efficiently. This Knowledge Exchange programme will bring together researchers and stakeholders to identify the questions that stakeholders most require answering to develop conservation strategies that are relevant under climate change, and then to bring together appropriate scientific and other information to answer the key questions identified by the stakeholders. The focus will be on the role of protected areas within conservation strategies. The project will be achieved via networking, workshops and literature / evidence gathering work. The answers will then be disseminated widely through a jointly-produced report, journal article and accounts in stakeholder magazines and web sites; as well as by oral presentations at a launch event and at stakeholder meetings. We will also identify stakeholder requirements for further research and for further Knowledge Exchange activities. The network formed through this programme will be well-placed to drive further integration of science into policy development and conservation action. The network will include researchers at the University of York and NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Knowledge Exchange specialists, and a variety of stakeholders and policy makers from, e.g., The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Botanical Society of the British Isles, Butterfly Conservation, from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Countryside Council for Wales, Natural England and Scottish Natural Heritage, and also from Defra.

There is a compelling need for well-trained future UK leaders in, the rapidly growing, Offshore Wind (OSW) Energy sector, whose skills extend across boundaries of engineering and environmental sciences. The Aura CDT proposed here unites world-leading expertise and facilities in offshore wind (OSW) engineering and the environment via academic partnerships and links to industry knowledge of key real-world challenges. The CDT will build a unique PhD cohort programme that forges interdisciplinary collaboration between key UK academic institutions, and the major global industry players and will deliver an integrated research programme, tailored to the industry need, that maximises industrial and academic impact across the OSW sector. The most significant OSW industry cluster operates along the coast of north-east England, centred on the Humber Estuary, where Aura is based. The Humber 'Energy Estuary' is located at the centre of ~90% of all UK OSW projects currently in development. Recent estimates suggest that to meet national energy targets, developers need >4,000 offshore wind turbines, worth £120 billion, within 100 km of the Humber. Location, combined with existing infrastructure, has led the OSW industry to invest in the Humber at a transformative scale. This includes: (1) £315M investment by Siemens and ABP in an OSW turbine blade manufacturing plant, and logistics hub, at Greenport Hull, creating over 1,000 direct jobs; (2) £40M in infrastructure in Grimsby, part of a £6BN ongoing investment in the Humber, supporting Orsted, Eon, Centrica, Siemens-Gamesa and MHI Vestas; (3) The £450M Able Marine Energy Park, a bespoke port facility focused on the operations and maintenance of OSW; and (4) Significant growth in local and regional supply chain companies. The Aura cluster (www.aurawindenergy.com) has the critical mass needed to deliver a multidisciplinary CDT on OSW research and innovation, and train future OSW sector leaders effectively. It is led by the University of Hull, in collaboration with the Universities of Durham, Newcastle and Sheffield. Aura has already forged major collaborations between academia and industry (e.g. Siemens-Gamesa Renewable Energy and Orsted). Core members also include the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult (OREC) and the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), who respectively are the UK government bodies that directly support innovation in the OSW sector and the development of novel marine environment technology and science. The Aura CDT will develop future leaders with urgently needed skills that span Engineering (EPSRC) and Environmental (NERC) Sciences, whose research plays a key role in solving major OSW challenges. Our vision is to ensure the UK capitalises on a world-leading position in offshore wind energy. The CDT will involve 5 annual cohorts of at least 14 students, supported by EPSRC/NERC and the Universities of Hull, Durham, Newcastle and Sheffield, and by industry. In Year 1, the CDT provides students, recruited from disparate backgrounds, with a consistent foundation of learning in OSW and the Environment, after which they will be awarded a University of Hull PG Diploma in Wind Energy. The Hull PG Diploma consists of 6 x 20 credit modules. In Year 1, Trimester 1, three core modules, adapted from current Hull MSc courses and supported by academics across the partner-institutes, will cover: i) an introduction to OSW, with industry guest lectures; ii) a core skills module, in data analysis and visualization; and iii) an industry-directed group research project that utilises resources and supervisors across the Aura partner institutes and industry partners. In Year 1, Trimester 2, Aura students will specialise further in OSW via 3 modules chosen from >24 relevant Hull MSc level courses. This first year at Hull will be followed in Years 2-4 by a PhD by research at one of the partner institutions, together with a range of continued cohort development and training.

For centuries, human activities have impacted our rivers by shifting the sources and combinations of physical, biological and chemical drivers and pressures. However, our understanding of their impact on ecosystems has been limited by viewing each in isolation and not considering their combined effects. Significant reductions in some regulated pollutants (such as nitrogen and phosphorus) have been achieved in recent decades. However, even with these improvements, we are witnessing declining water quality of our rivers, and the resulting loss of freshwater species and biota. The picture that we see is made evermore complex by the increasing numbers of different types of emerging contaminants of concern (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, illicit drugs, micro plastics etc.). This means that our freshwater species are being challenged by a bewildering combination of pollutant cocktails (mixtures) whose effects are poorly understood. At the same time, climate-change driven shifts in water quantity (more frequent floods, longer periods of low flow) and warming waters are expected not only to be influencing the function, physiology, abundance and biological timings of freshwater ecological communities directly, but also the delivery and potential toxicity of these cocktails respectively. It is not simply the water pathway that we need to consider, but also the re-mobilisation of contaminants and the changing patterns of exposure that potentially magnify the effects on biota (i.e. organism sensitivity). Our wastewater systems and combined sewer overflows transport these emerging pollutants from our cities and towns into our freshwater environment. Increasing urbanisation and changes in rainfall intensity and its seasonality, different catchment processes all have the potential to increase inputs of these emerging contaminants to the environment and freshwater species that live there. Substantial knowledge gaps remain around the effects of hydro-climatic and land use changes in combination with the different mixtures of chemicals on freshwater species. Our research will address these gaps by embracing the digital revolution through innovative technologies and transformative data analytics to deliver a step change in our knowledge and understanding. Our approach has three strands. The first will turn a spotlight on a typical catchment encompassing rural to urban land uses through rigorous investigations that will deliver high temporal resolution data. This will provide new understanding of acute/event-based impacts on freshwater ecosystems. Secondly, we will use national scale datasets and cutting edge data analytics tools to investigate the impacts of longer-term exposure to pollutant cocktails across the UK on water quality and ecosystem health. This will provide new understanding of chronic/long term impacts on freshwater ecosystems. Thirdly, we will integrate our new evidence base and understanding into a risk-based probabilistic model. The model will allow the exploration of the relationships between environmental change, declining river quality, multiple pollutants and ecosystem impacts. Our research will develop the evidence base to understand changing pollutant sources, delivery pathways and the environmental tolerances and boundaries within which organisms can thrive and flourish (i.e. the ecosystem safe space). Together, MOT4Rivers will inform priorities for policy, regulation and investment to design cost effective programmes of measures to promote and enhance sustainable freshwater ecosystems under a changing climate.

Considerable effort and money has been devoted to determining the ecological consequences of a wide range of interventions, which has resulted in an extensive literature. However, research shows that practitioners only rarely use this literature when making decisions as to which intervention to implement. Furthermore, many accepted beliefs in conservation practice are actually incorrect. Scientific results are traditionally published in academic journals. However, it is often difficult for practitioners to extract the pertinent information from these. The major problems are that most practitioners do not have access to the Web of Science or equivalent scientific search engines, it is often difficult to target the search for conservation interventions without producing vast numbers of irrelevent titles and many practitioners do not have the training to extract the conservation message from academic papers. Evidence-based medicine has revolutionised medical practice in that the collection, review, and dissemination of the evidence now underpins most medical practice. We suggest that conservation would benefit from a similar revolution and propose that evidence-based conservation should become a standard approach. In this model we envisage practitioners having easy access to summaries of the literature, that they would monitor the effectiveness of some interventions for which the evidence is weak or ambiguous, that there would be reviews and meta analyses where there are numerous studies relating to one issue, and there would be synopses summarising the evidence for the major interventions. This proposal seeks to provide an open access database of the majority of the papers relating to the consequences for birds of conservation interventions. Syntheses of the consequences of a wide range of interventions will be a key output. Full use of the output will also require a change in approaches to conservation. The involvement of all the major organisations involved in bird conservation (BirdLife International - a partnership of over 100 national global bird conservation organisations, British Trust for Ornithology, Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Natural England, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Scottish Natural Heritage and World Conservation Monitoring Centre) will both ensure that the project is as required by practitioners but will also ensure that the results will be widely used both in the UK and internationally. Training in the use of evidence-based conservation will be provided through workshops in the UK, Africa and Asia and this work will also be promoted through stands at UK and international meetings. The longer term objective is to change global conservation practice so that the decisions effecting biodiversity are routinely based upon the scientific literature. The expectation is that we can build upon the work and experience of this project to expand it to incorporate all the major aspect of conservation in collaboration with a wide range of other organisation so that the use of evidence in decision making becomes standard practice This proposal would allow us to make a substantial step forward in achieving our objective of reforming global conservation practice.