Transport and residential location consume substantial quantities of energy whilst serving only to facilitate primary economic and societal activities. The relationship between urban form and travel patterns is inherently complex: it can be influenced by policy but through many individual personal responses rather than being subject to explicit control. Managing the energy used in transport is therefore an indirect process that works by influencing the amount and distance of travel, the means by which travel takes place, and the energy requirement of the resulting travel. Achieving this effectively requires an a full understanding of the many complex interacting social processes that generate the demand for travel and impinge on the ways in which it is satisfied in terms of its supply. The complexity sciences provide a framework for organising this understanding. In this project, we argue that changes in energy costs generate surprising and unanticipated effects in complex systems such as cities, largely because of the many order effects that are generated when changes in movement and the energy utilities used to sustain locations generate multiplier effects that are hard to trace and even harder to contain. For example, as energy costs increase, people eventually reach a threshold beyond which they cannot sustain their existing travel patterns or even their locations and then rapid shifts occur in their behaviour. When energy costs reduce, these shifts are by no means symmetrical as people switch out of one activity into another, by changing location as well as mode.At UCL, we have four groups of researchers building models of urban and transport systems which provide related perspectives on these responses to changing energy costs. Wilson pioneered the development of entropy maximising approaches to transport and location in which energy and travel costs are essential determinants of travel and his recent work in nesting these models within a dynamics that generate unanticipated effects is key to understanding the kinds of changes that are now being effected by changing energy costs. In a complementary way, these models can be provided with a much stronger rationale using recent theories of spatial agglomeration which date back to Turing but find their clearest expression in the work of Krugman (TK models). These models thus inform the Boltzman-Lotka-Volterra (BLV) models developed by Wilson. Translating these models into physical infrastructures involves explicit developments in network science and Zhou and Heydecker's models suggest ways in which energy costs might be reduced by linking physical networks to flows generated by the BLV and TK models. What we propose here is to extend and develop these three approaches, extending our existing operational land use transport model for Greater London (built as part of the Tyndall Centre's Cities programme) to enable our partners to explore 'what if ' questions involving changing energy costs on the city.The methodologies we will employ to explore these models involve nonlinearities that are caused by positive feedback effects in complex systems where n'th order multiplier effects are endemic. We will use phase space representations to visualise such changes and then implement these in the operational land use transport model which we will disseminate to our partners in the quest to pose significant policy questions. We intend to provide a series of tightly coupled deliverables to progress this science to the point where it is directly usable by policy makers and professionals. We will communicate our findings using various kinds of web-based services being developed under related projects. In this way, we will develop best practice based on best science. We believe that we can demonstrate the essential logic of complexity science to a much wider constituency in developing insights into these most topical questions of the changing cost of energy.

This Innovation project for impact will bring together policy and practice leaders concerned with how planning decisions affect urban air quality. The overarching aim is to make a software platform for the quantitative assessment of Green Infrastructure as an aid to the improvement of roadside air quality. We call this platform GI4RAQ. Our particular objectives can be summarised as: 1. to provide a consolidated, open-source, computer modelling code for roadside air pollution in urban settings based on our existing research code. 2. to co-design of a fit-for-purpose, simple, and attractive GI4RAQ platform for urban practitioners as a front-end to the consolidated model code. 3. to demonstrate that the GI4RAQ platform can unlock a critical impasse in current planning policy and so enable capacity-building on the regulatory and consultancy sides of the planning process. We will work with major influencers in the private and public sectors, which offers a rapid and cost-effective route to meaningful impact. Specifically, we will work with Transport for London and the Greater London Authority to influence the next issue of the London Plan. To be released towards the end of 2019, a proposed new policy requiring larger-scale developments to be 'Air Quality Positive' may be implemented, but only if tools exist to evidence such a result at planning. We will work with the UK's leading air quality consultants, Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants (CERC) and Ricardo Energy & Environment, to ensure that the GI4RAQ platform is fit for operational use and that it can be used alongside current Air Quality tools. London's 33 Local Authorities must ensure their Local Plans conform to the London Plan, and Authorities across the UK look to the London Plan in preparing their own Local Plans, both of which provide cascading impact for our proposed work. The project is designed to dovetail with 'WM Air', a large multi-partner programme focused on West Midlands' air quality led by the University of Birmingham. The GI4RAQ Principal Investigator leads the work stream on green infrastructure in WM Air alongside GI4RAQ partner Birmingham City Council, thereby ensuring rapid knowledge transfer between research and practice in London and Birmingham. The project will establish a robust approach to 'GI4RAQ' interventions to deliver reliable improvements in roadside air quality, based on quantitative computer modelling but avoiding the time and expense of full fluid flow simulations. The approach develops directly out of a NERC Innovation Pathfinder, which established that a strong demand for quantitative GI4RAQ exists, but also identified the policy impasse, and a placement of the researcher co-Investigator in Transport for London.

The proposal integrates the expertise of the research centres and project partners in transport policies and planning, design, operations and evaluation. The UK government, European Commission and other agencies rightly emphasise the importance of socially inclusive and sustainable interventions. As yet, however, there is a dearth of comprehensive 'toolkits' and resources to support those who are working to reduce social exclusion in journey environments. The shared vision is to produce rigorous methodologies for sustainable policies and practices that will deliver effective socially inclusive design and operation in transport and the public realm from macro down to micro level. Three Core Projects will develop decision-support tools that will establish benchmarks and incorporate inclusion into policies, and support the design and operation of journey environments and transport facilities. A real-world but controlled 'Testbed' facility will allow these to be piloted in the context of the policy intentions and constraints that shape implementation. Solutions will then be tested and transferred to other Case Study areas and sites. Phase 2 of AUNT-SUE will build on the suite of tools developed in Phase I and apply these to intensive case studies of transport interchanges, nodes and development areas. This will both develop and test techniques to design accessible journey environments (routes and facilities) and transport provision and planning, and consult on these with people who have been identified as socially excluded from travel. Three inter-linked research modules will be validated through integrated case studies outlined below, utilising a GIS-based platform supported by CAD, relational databases and both quantitative and qualitative social surveys.

Goods, waste and service trips in urban areas impose negative traffic and environmental impacts, and there is a need for further roll-out of cost-effective and sustainable solutions. The CITYLAB objective is to develop knowledge and solutions that result in roll-out, up-scaling and further implementation of cost effective strategies, measures and tools for emission free city logistics in urban centres by 2030. The project focuses on four axes for intervention due to their present and future relevance and impact related to topic MG-5.2 objectives: 1) Highly fragmented last-mile deliveries in city centres; 2) Large freight attractors and public administrations; 3) Urban waste, return trips and recycling; 4) Logistics facilities and warehouses. CITYLAB will i) improve basic knowledge and understanding on areas of freight distribution and service trips in urban areas that have received too little attention; ii) test and implement 7 innovative solutions that are promising in terms of impact on traffic, externalities and business profitability and have a high potential for future growth; and iii) provide a platform for replication and spreading supported solutions. The core of CITYLAB is a set of living laboratories, where cities work as contexts for innovation and implementation processes for public and private measures contributing to increased efficiency and sustainable urban logistics. Linkages will be established between the different living labs for exchange of experiences and to develop methodologies for transfer of implementations between cities and between companies. This process will be supported by a strong research team. The outputs from the living labs will include best practice guidance on innovative approaches and how to replicate them. CITYLAB will lay the ground for roll-out, up-scaling and transfer of cost-effective policies and implementations that lead to increased load factors and reduced vehicle movements of freight and service trips in urban areas.

London and the South-East is the economic 'powerhouse' of England contributing 40% of GDP. Currently there is a shortage of housing, particularly affordable homes, and 50,000 new homes per year are planned for London to 2036. The growing population of London and its planned housing require water to be supplied and flooding to be reduced as far as possible. However, the region is vulnerable to water shortages (droughts) and floods. In the spring of 2012 London was facing potentially its worst drought, with concerns whether Affinity Water could provide sufficient water for some Olympic events. By contrast, the prolonged rainfall that then fell over the summer caused localised flooding and the Thames barrier being closed twice. This swing, over half a year, from extreme shortage of water to excess highlights the major challenge London faces to manage the water environment. This challenge is likely to worsen with climate change alongside the expected economic growth of London and associated increase in population. It also shows how droughts and flooding are two ends of a hydrological spectrum, whose political oversight, i.e. governance, needs to be managed was a whole. It is this need for integrated, collaborative and appropriate management that lies at the heart of CAMELLIA. Focusing on London, CAMELLIA will bring together environmental, engineering, urban planning and socio-economic experts with governmental and planning authorities, industry, developers and citizens to provide solutions that will enable required housing growth in London whilst sustainably managing water and environment in the city. CAMELLIA will be led by Imperial College London, working in collaboration with researchers at University College London, the University of Oxford, and the British Geological Survey. The programme is supported by communities, policymakers and industry including: local and national government, environmental regulators, water companies, housing associations and developers, environmental charities and trusts. Ultimately, the programme aims to transform collaborative water management to support the provision of lower cost and better performing water infrastructure in the context of significant housing development, whilst improving people's local environments and their quality of life. The relationships between the natural environment and urban water infrastructure are highly complex, comprised of ecological, hydrological, economic, technical, political and social elements. It is vital that policy and management are informed by the latest scientific understanding of hydrological and ecological systems. However, for this knowledge to make a change and have an impact, it needs to be positioned within wider socio-technical and economic systems. CAMELLIA will provide a systems framework to translate Natural Environmental Research Council-funded science into decision-making. Enabling a range of organisations and people to contribute to, and apply systems-thinking and co-designed tools to create a paradigm shift in integrated water management and governance underpins CAMELLIA. This will achieve the goal of real stakeholder engagement in water management decisions and provide a template, not just for London's growth, but for other cities, regions and communities both nationally and globally. The proposed work programme consists of four work packages which address 4 key questions, namely: How to understand the system?; How to model the integrated system?; How to analyse that system?; How to apply this systems approach to create impact? To help focus these questions, four London based case studies are being used, each reflecting a key issue: Southwark (urban renewal); Thamesmead (housing development); Mogden (water infrastructure regeneration); Enfield (Flood risk and water quality). From these, an integrated systems model will be applied to the entire city in order to help guide policy, planning and water management decisions.