Current methods for microplastic (MP) analysis can be divided into low-cost versus more advanced methods. ANDROMEDA recognizes that further development and validation is needed for both approaches. Low-cost methods are needed that can identify a broad range of MP polymers with acceptable accuracy. Advanced methods need further development in order to push the limit of detectability for smaller sizes of MP and nanoplastics (NP) and improve their ability to analyze MP types that are currently difficult to analyze by microspectroscopy. Moreover, to study plastic degradation mechanisms over a reasonable time frame, lab-based accelerated degradation approaches are required that mimic natural fragmentation and additive chemical leaching. Within ANDROMEDA, in situ MP detection, efficient sampling and cost-effective laboratory methods will be developed and optimized to analyze MP. Approaches will be based on hyperspectral imaging, chemical markers and fluorometric detection techniques. Advanced analysis techniques making use of µFTIR, Raman imaging and SEM-EDX (amongst others) will be applied to quantify and characterize MP and NP down to 1 µm, 0.2 µm or lower. Specific tasks will focus on challenging types of MP such as microfibers, tire wear particles (TWPs) and paint flakes. UV, hydrolytic and thermo-oxidative methods to study accelerated plastic degradation at the lab-scale will be developed and used to prepare partially degraded reference materials. Comprehensive degradation studies will be conducted to study in detail the mechanisms of UV and microbial degradation, as well as to investigate the influence of parameters such as temperature, pH and hyperbaric pressure, where attention will be paid to additive chemical leaching. Quality assurance will be a central theme in all aspects of the project. Partners specialized in dissemination, communication and data management will ensure strong stakeholder involvement and efficient outreach of the project results.

In AlienScenarios, we will evaluate for the first time the range of plausible futures of biological invasions for the 21st century. We will use complementary data and approaches, and different measures of impacts of biological invasions. AlienScenarios consists of seven highly integrated complementary subprojects: In Work Package I (WP I) we develop the qualitative narratives for plausible futures of global alien species spread in the 21st century – the Alien Species Narratives (ASNs). The ASN further serve as overarching concept to parameterize quantitative models of global (WP II, III), continental (WP IV) and regional (WPs V, VI) futures of biological invasions. In WP II, we will establish the first global mechanistic invasion model considering all relevant processes of biological invasions such as source pools, driver dynamics, and establishment rates. In WP III, we will assess the impacts of invasive alien species in terms of economic costs according to the different Alien Species Narratives developed in WP I. In WP IV, we will assess the consequences of different levels of implementation of the European Union Regulation on invasive alien species. In WP V, we will analyse changes of the functional composition of communities in mountain regions under different scenario storylines. In WP VI, we will extend the analyses to the Global South using Panama as a country-level case study. Finally, in WP VII the results of the other WPs will be synthesized, and the approach and results of AlienScenarios will be discussed with and communicated to stakeholders and the wider community. For doing so, we will establish an Advisory Board that will meet three times for two-day workshops, and we will actively use a range of dissemination and outreach activities. AlienScenarios will provide crucially needed insights for pro-active alien species management and policy. It will thus make an important contribution to global assessments and projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as regional policies (e.g. EU regulation on invasive alien species).

Europe is facing a biodiversity crisis brought on by a perfect storm of climatic and land-use pressures driving re-assortment of species assemblages and the disassociation of ecological functions. To mitigate against the effects of this crisis on biodiversity and human societies, we need an EU-wide understanding of species responses to global change, combined with a process-based understanding of the interactions between species, communities and ecosystems that generate biodiversity dynamics. Unfortunately, uniting both sets of knowledge in an integrated set of forecasts has proved elusive. Species distribution models (SDMs) are our most powerful tools for forecasting species responses to global change across Europe. They are thus ideal to assess relative levels of risk and allocate resources effectively. SDMs have been extensively explored and validated. However SDM forecasts are criticized for insufficient treatment of mechanisms that determine how species will be affected by global change: first, the demography, dispersal, and biotic interactions that determine population declines or range shifts; second, the interactions between drivers such as climate and land-use. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) on the other hand are the ideal tool with which to model the biogeochemical, hydrological and vegetation processes that are the foundation of the terrestrial ecosystems. Unlike SDMs, DVMs explicitly model competition and growth, and their interactions with both climate and land-use change. However, DVMs lack the generality of SDMs in that they are limited to a few species for which biophysiological traits are sufficiently known: currently only a few major European tree and shrub species. Species responses to global change are idiosyncratic, precluding comprehensive biodiversity forecasts based on DVMs alone. Thus, we propose to use DVMs and SDMs in tandem to predict European biodiversity trajectories, resilience and changes to ecosystem services. DVMs will be extended to forecast vegetation dynamics under actual landscape-scale socio-economic land-use forecasts, and to consider the combined effects of species dispersal and competition. Resilience and tipping points in ecosystem services will be analysed. This will provide for the first time realistic timelines of ecosystem service trajectories, suitable for landscape-scale management. DVM-integrated forecasts of vegetation and land-use change (land-cover) will be combined with dispersal into a sophisticated range-shift model (RSM) framework, for a wide range of EU taxa. This tackles key criticisms of SDMs (above). DVMs and SDMs will also be combined to forecasts the effects of ecosystem function change on biodiversity in situ and during range shifts. In summary, the above procedures will forecast the dynamic coupling between species and ecosystem responses to climate and land-use change, and identify resilience or tipping points throughout the 21st century. Conservation planning tools have tended to assume that protected area designation is our primary means of conservation. However, most land in Europe has multiple uses and hence cannot be designated as a single-purpose nature reserve, and the diffuse nature of global change impacts requires widespread action. Adaptive governance is required: multi-level and multi-purpose approaches that coordinate environmentally-linked policies to support resilient socio-ecological systems. To this end, the green infrastructure (GI) approach has been recently included in the EU Biodiversity strategy. GI integrates biodiversity considerations into all policies that have environmental impact.The goal is to create landscapes in which ecosystems, and the services they provide, have strong resilience. We will develop scenarios for GI at regional and local levels in a participatory process, first to test and provide a tool for local level decision support and second to make recommendations for EU policies.

The need for the implementation of innovative governance of water resources in general and coastal aquifers in particular taking into account the technological development as well as socio-economic factors has become a worldwide necessity. In compliance with the challenges and scope of the PRIMA call topic 1.1.2 entitled “Sustainable, integrated water management”, Sustain-COAST main goal is to implement a new innovative governance approach of coastal aquifers between multiple water users and beneficiaries under severe changing climate conditions in 4 countries located in the both sides of the Mediterranean Sea (Greece, Tunisia, Italy and Turkey). For this aim, this project intends to establish an adapted multi-criteria decision supporting system (DSS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) platform with an online access for water stakeholders and policy makers. This DSS and platform will be based on: i) an active and continuous social participation and learning, ii) the use of advanced technologies and tools, such as optical sensors and remote sensing capacities, iii) the use of various available numerical models (Feflow and Modflow) for the prediction of these coastal aquifers quantity and quality progress in time and iv) the use of smart, adapted and visualized web applications. On the other hand, this project will permit the preservation of the studied coastal aquifers against anthropogenic pollution through the promotion of the local water management concept which is based on the 4R principles (Reduce; Recycle; Reuse and Recover). The main outcomes of this project will be communicated and disseminated by using the best practices and means for the highest profit of all the concerned actors. Thanks to this project, Mediterranean coastal groundwater will be managed in harmony and enthusiasm under the responsibility of all the concerned actors taking into account the local socio-economic context and the meteo-climatic trends.