A major aim of biology and ecology is to understand the historical and contemporary processes that underpin patterns of biodiversity and shape the particularly species-rich assemblages of certain regions. This requires unraveling a number of key processes: (i) the macroevolutionary dynamics of species diversification, (ii) the mechanisms of species differentiation and speciation, and (iii) the historical and environmental drivers of community assembly (e.g. functional or phylogenetic diversity) and ecosystem functioning. While deciphering the importance of those key processes is pivotal for biodiversity management and conservation planning, empirical analyses are still hampered by a lack of high quality data on species traits and distributions, community data (e.g. vegetation survey) and phylogenetic information. There is also no existing analytical framework capable of analyzing and deciphering those processes and their importance in biodiversity protection. Isolated mountain ranges provide a unique opportunity to study the processes generating biodiversity, and practical aspects of its conservation under a common ecological and historical setting. Here, we focus on the European Alps, one of the coldest biomes on the planet. This region is a well known hotspot of biodiversity in Europe, with fairly high plant endemism (about 13%). The growing evidence that alpine biodiversity is highly threatened by global changes urges us to advance our understanding of how alpine biodiversity has emerged and diversified, how this biodiversity is structured along the steep environmental gradients of alpine landscapes, and ultimately assess whether the existing network of protected areas cover the different components (e.g. rarity, endemism, functional and phylogenetic diversity, phylogenetic endemism) of the flora of European Alps. The overarching aim of this project is thus to reconstruct the evolutionary and ecological assembly of the Flora of the European Alps and to use this knowledge for assessing current protection schemes. Over the last decade, the two project partners (WSL and LECA) have undertaken an important effort of sampling and sequencing of all 4,500 plant taxa occurring in the Alps, which represents an unprecedented source of raw genomic data to the current project. This will be complemented by compiling and harmonizing eco-informatic data on the whole Alpine Flora (species traits, geographic distribution and vegetation plot surveys) [Task1]. The project addresses four questions. How and when have certain plant groups experienced increased species diversification into harsh alpine environments, while biogeographic theories predict higher diversification in warmer environments [Task2]? What is the phylogenetic structure of plant meta-communities and can we infer speciation scenarios from that structure [Task3]? How are plant communities assembled along environmental gradients, and what drives the spatial co-variation between different biodiversity facets [Task4]? How well does the current reserve network cover different biodiversity facets in the Alpine Region [Task5]? The project will generate an unprecedented genomic and ecological database for the whole Flora of the European Alps, and will provide a gold-standard reference data for plant phylogenomics and eco-informatics at the scale of an entire biogeographic region. This opens novel horizons for biodiversity research, community ecology and conservation planning.

The overarching objective of FutureWeb is to produce robust projections of the impacts of global change on multi-trophic biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services in Europe. We will engage with stakeholders early in the project to select the most appropriate scenarios analyses for developing biodiversity management strategies and conservation plans, and to identify relevant biodiversity variables. From this, FutureWeb will first produce on harmonized set of available data across Europe (species distribution data, species trait data, species interaction data) for all European vertebrates, as well as high resolution climatic and land use layers for both current and future conditions. Second, we build the first multi-trophic species distribution model that will allow both deriving individual species predictions and diversity estimates. We will apply this novel model on all vertebrate species and project the potential distributions an ensemble of climate and land use scenarios. The final biodiversity ensembles will not only account for the uncertainty given the biodiversity models and data, but also will build on a large range of regional climate models, the full set of representative concentration pathways and the shared socio-economic pathways scenarios of land use change. Third, we will integrate ecosystem functioning in the ensemble predictions via the total energy flux between functional feeding guilds as a measure of multitrophic ecosystem functioning. These will be based on metabolic scaling theory and principles of food- web energy dynamics. In addition to the total energy flux, we will focus on specific functions and services provided by vertebrates. Finally, I will apply novel conservation prioritization approaches that will take multi-trophic biodiversity, ecosystem multi-functionality and bundles of services into consideration. FutureWeb is thus at the forefront of research predicting biodiversity changes in response to global change, their cascading effects on ecosystem functioning and services and the conservation implications of those changes.

Increasing urban human populations lead to further development of urban centers with consequent loss of green spaces, causing strong alterations of ecosystem processes and trophic interactions. Yet urban green areas have been shown to support native biodiversity, enhance ecosystem functions and provide important ecosystem services. Moreover, urban green and blue infrastructures (GBI) contribute to human well-being. The high proportion of impervious surfaces makes urban GBI fragmented and isolated. GBI enhance the permeability for both biodiversity and citizens through dense and hostile urban matrices. In a hearing phase of this project municipal authorities have highlighted their need of guidance on the implementation, managing and restoring of GBI. The main objective of our BIOVEINS proposal is to use functional diversity (FD) to highlight the mechanisms underpinning the link between GBI, taxonomic diversity (TD) and ecosystem services (ESs) provisioning, and to provide, together with local stakeholders, the ecological and interdisciplinary knowledge to identify the critical features of GBI, to guide the establishment, management and restoration of GBI, and to mitigate the effects of major urban global challenges, like habitat fragmentation, air pollution, and urban heat island. This main objective will be accomplished by several specific objectives: (i) to analyse, together with local stakeholders, the actual and planned GBI from an urban planning perspective, determine representative sampling plots and derive prior actions based on specific objectives (ii) – (iv); (ii) to assess the FD for a variety of taxonomic groups differing in dispersion ability, sensitivity to environmental conditions and use of resources within GBI to link the considered taxa to ESs and to determine the importance of GBI connectivity on urban biodiversity; (iii) to assess the impact of proportion, configuration and connectivity of urban GBI on provisioning and regulating ESs by an experimental and modelling approach, and link these ESs to the data obtained in (i-ii) to assess the role of TD and FD on these ESs; and (iv) to provide tools, best practices, and guidelines for the stakeholders about how to improve urban GBI and how to enhance multifunctional ESs for people and nature. These mechanistic approaches make it possible to predict changes in more stressful (future) conditions, and provide a means to propose best practices for planning of urban green areas. The structure of the project is based on 7 highly interacting work packages, and it considers major representative urban environments in terms of climate, taxa and configuration selecting cities along a S-N and W-E gradient throughout Europe.

Severe droughts are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency, leading to unprecedented ecological and economic risks for forest health and productivity. There is an urgent need to adapt forest management to the anticipated uncertain future climatic conditions to limit impacts for ecosystems and economy. Such adaptation plans hinge on a deep understanding of the complex mechanisms regulating forest ecosystem responses, including tree mortality related to drought. We will examine the interactive effects of drought and tree population density on the resistance and resilience of tree growth, and the ecophysiological mechanisms contributing to the drought response of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver fir (Abies alba), two keystone species for European forestry. The results will serve as input for economic risk assessments of these two tree species under different management and climate-change scenarios. We will implement a novel and interdisciplinary research approach by combining growth and yield analyses, dendrochronology, and ecophysiological mechanistic modeling, converging into an economic riskassessment at different spatial (tree- to regional-level) and temporal (intra-annual to decadal) scales. The study will take advantage of a large dataset from long-term experimental management stands in Baden- Württemberg, Germany, and will be complemented with sites in France and Switzerland – together an outstanding dataset for Central European forests. The outcomes of this powerful framework will contribute to developing efficient management policies for adapting Norway spruce and silver fir forests to increasing drought-related risks. This may be also validated in other forest ecosystems across Europe. The project will be managed by experienced researchers from the NFZ.forestnet, and will connect six research institutions from Zürich (CH), Freiburg (D), and Nancy (F), to a strong scientific network with wellestablished stakeholder contacts in Central Europe.

Terrestrial ecosystems, through the cycling of energy, water, elements, and trace gases, are important determinants of climate. While impacts of climate on biodiversity has been extensively studied, little is known about the effects of biodiversity on climate and to what degree this feedback can mitigate or increase the degree to which climate is shifting. Here, we set a specific focus on the feedback of biodiversity to the climate and to nature?s contributions to people. This will allow for a better understanding of the cascading effects and feedback loops of global environmental change. A major limitation for solving this issue is the fact that climate or earth system models use a very simple parametrization scheme of biodiversity to date. These schemes only differentiate between very broad vegetation categories, such as broadleaved and needle leaved forest or plant functional types. Such a simple classification of the functional diversity is not capable of well representing the processes relevant to address biodiversity feedbacks to the atmosphere. In this project, we will use two dynamic vegetation models DVMs; FATE-HD and LPJ-Guess, in combination with two climate models: COSMO-CLM2 and CHELSA to create coupled biodiversity-climate scenarios for the historical period and for two emission scenarios (rcp2.6, rcp8.5). The problem of limited vegetation classes will be overcome by calculating biodiversity and vegetation processes and effects at a much finer scale than is calculated for climate. We apply a fine scale classification of vegetation (EUNIS) and additionally parameterize biodiversity and functional trait diversity. Biodiversity effects on the climate in these models will be parametrized by 1) integrating vegetation databases (sPlot and the European Vegetation Archive, EVA) in combination with remotely sensed data from Sentinel and Landsat and downscaled climate data from COSMO-CLM2. The information from these vegetation databases will also be used to run the DVMs at unprecedented spatial detail (100m across the Alps, 5km across Europe). Aggregating this information to the climate model scale (12 km) will then allow the DVMs to provide information back to the COSMO-CLM2 through a calibration process by which physico-structural and biogeochemical properties are passed to the climate model. The effect of biodiversity on climate will then be investigated by either excluding specific biodiversity relevant variables or randomizing them in the model. This will allow us to quantify their effect on the entire ecosystem?climate system across entire Europe for the past and the future. Furthermore, the information from the detected biodiversity?climate feedbacks will directly be linked to Nature?s contribution to people using an ecosystem services framework. By this will help to better mitigate climate change effects and to better communicate biodiversity?climate feedbacks for climate-smart biodiversity and NCP management to stakeholders.