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Our current understanding of the Earth's climate is largely based on the predictions of numerical models that simulate the behaviour of, and interaction between, the atmosphere and the ocean. These models are crucially limited in their resolution, however, such that processes within the ocean that have horizontal scales of less than approximately 10 km cannot be explicitly represented and need to be parameterised for their effects to be included within the models. The purpose of this project, Surface Mixed Evolution at Submesoscales (SMILES), is to identify the potentially crucial role played by one variety of these unresolved processes, referred to as submesoscales, in influencing the structure and properties of the upper ocean, and thereby the transformation of surface water masses, within the Southern Ocean. Submesoscales are flows with spatial scales of 1-10 km that occur within the upper ocean where communication and exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere occurs. Previously considered unimportant to climate-scale studies due to their small scale and the presumed insignificance of their dynamics, recent evidence from high resolution regional models and observational studies is now emerging which suggests that submesoscales are actually widespread throughout the upper ocean and play a key role within climate dynamics due to their ability to rapidly restratify the upper ocean and reduce buoyancy loss from the ocean to the atmosphere. The impact of such a process is particularly important to the surface transformation of water masses such as Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), which is an important component of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) that redistributes heat, freshwater and tracers around the globe. Within the MOC, dense water masses such as SAMW are formed and transformed at high latitudes by surface processes before being subducted into the ocean interior. The properties of the subducted water masses and the tracers and dissolved gases such as carbon dioxide contained within them are vitally important to the global climate and geochemical cycles as these water masses remain out of contact with the surface over decennial to centennial timescales. In the light of the recent discoveries concerning the ability of submesoscales to substantially influence the properties of the upper ocean, we will directly study the impacts of submesoscales on SAMW properties within the Scotia Sea. Using an integrated approach, we will both observe and simulate submesoscales within the upper ocean at a range of spatial and temporal scales, spanning from turbulence up to mode water formation. The principal goal of the study is the diagnosis of the role played by submesoscales in water mass transformation so that we can accurately incorporate these effects into climate-scale models which cannot explicitly resolve them. Our methods will entail a cruise approximately 200 miles south of the Falklands Islands at the Subantarctic Front (SAF), to the north of which SAMW is transformed, and a concurrent modelling study using a state-of-the-art global circulation model. During the cruise, we will use towed instruments to measure the length scales of variability in the temperature, salinity and related fields throughout the upper 300 m of the ocean. The data will enable us to identify the intensity and distribution of submesoscales within the vicinity of the SAF, and to ascertain the forcing mechanisms that generate them. In conjunction with the modelling component of the project, which will include both high resolution and coarse-scale simulations with the MITgcm and large eddy simulations (LES), we will assess how submesoscales ultimately impact on the properties of SAMW within the region and the ultimate effect this has on the formation of SAMW.

The overarching objective of AtlantOS is to achieve a transition from a loosely-coordinated set of existing ocean observing activities to a sustainable, efficient, and fit-for-purpose Integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System (IAOOS), by defining requirements and systems design, improving the readiness of observing networks and data systems, and engaging stakeholders around the Atlantic; and leaving a legacy and strengthened contribution to the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). AtlantOS will fill existing in-situ observing system gaps and will ensure that data are readily accessible and useable. AtlantOS will demonstrate the utility of integrating in-situ and Earth observing satellite based observations towards informing a wide range of sectors using the Copernicus Marine Monitoring Services and the European Marine Observation and Data Network and connect them with similar activities around the Atlantic. AtlantOS will support activities to share, integrate and standardize in-situ observations, reduce the cost by network optimization and deployment of new technologies, and increase the competitiveness of European industries, and particularly of the small and medium enterprises of the marine sector. AtlantOS will promote innovation, documentation and exploitation of innovative observing systems. All AtlantOS work packages will strengthen the trans-Atlantic collaboration, through close interaction with partner institutions from Canada, United States, and the South Atlantic region. AtlantOS will develop a results-oriented dialogue with key stakeholders communities to enable a meaningful exchange between the products and services that IAOOS can deliver and the demands and needs of the stakeholder communities. Finally, AtlantOS will establish a structured dialogue with funding bodies, including the European Commission, USA, Canada and other countries to ensure sustainability and adequate growth of IAOOS.

Cholera is a waterborne epidemic disease in humans. It is a major public health threat, affecting 1.3 to 4 million people each year worldwide, with 21,000 to 143,000 reported fatalities. Outbreaks are caused by the bacterial pathogen Vibrio cholerae, found in many coastal, estuarine, and brackish waters around the world. The origin of the current pandemic of cholera was a single population of pathogens in the north-eastern Indian Ocean basin, which spread globally, in several transmission events. Transmission pathways include direct human-to-human infection, and human-environment interactions, including ingestion of contaminated water, aggravated by emerging antimicrobial resistance through release of antibiotics into the environment. Vibrio pathogens are found as free-floating forms or attached to living (plankton) and non-living (sediment) hosts. They flourish under warm temperature, moderate salinity and turbidity. The major environmental reservoirs of Vibrios, their connectivity, how they might be affected by climate variability and the associated impact on human health remain largely unknown. There is a clear imperative to reduce human risk from cholera bacteria to meet Global Goals related to 3-human health, 6-water quality, 13-climate and 14-life under water. Focusing on the northern Indian Ocean, currently a hotbed of outbreaks of cholera and related diseases, the PODCAST project will pinpoint the impact of large-scale oceanic and climatic processes on the transmission dynamics of cholera (Goals 6, 13, 14) and their impact on public health (Goal 3). Scientists from India, Japan and the UK will work collaboratively to: 1) identify environmental reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae as well as possible advective transport via ocean currents and long-distance transmission routes for cholera outbreaks; 2) characterise the influence of climate perturbations on cholera outbreaks and environmental transmission routes; 3) build an epidemiological model integrating environmental and human-to-human transmission routes; and 4) produce forecasts for cholera outbreaks in coastal regions. The research will be developed in consultation with end-users, including local communities relying on water resources for livelihoods, income generation and recreation; governments; health services; intergovernmental agencies; and policy makers for whom we will provide tools and Vibrio disease risk map products that will support evidence-based policy decisions and actions to achieve Global Goals. The work will be organised in four Work Packages. WP1 (Abdulaziz-India; Sathyendranath-UK) will generate new in situ observations of biophysical variables (including Vibrio pathogens and antibiotics) at selected sites in open-ocean and coastal locations; and process satellite data (ocean-colour, salinity, altimeter and temperature) over entire northern Indian Ocean. WP2 (Platt-UK; Clark-UK; Nonaka-Japan), focussing on models and using data from WP1, will develop an epidemiological model including components of human-to-human and environmental transmission routes of cholera outbreaks; a particle-tracking model to study sources and connectivity between environmental reservoirs of Vibrios; and a climate-variability model to generate past and future indices of large-scale patterns of climate variability. WP3 (Racault-UK), based on the influence of environmental conditions, regional circulation and climate variability on risks of outbreaks at coastal locations in the northern Indian Ocean (WP 2), will focus on producing a cholera-outbreak prediction system for coastal regions of the northern Indian Ocean. The user-engagement, policy information and practice interventions will be addressed in WP4 (Menon-India; George-India) in which we will engage with local communities, policy-makers, and intergovernmental agencies (WHO, IPCC) to identify needs, assess benefits, best practices and uptake of results from PODCAST to reduce risks of Vibrio diseases to public health.