Simpson's Paradox in Water Management Infrastructure and Drought Severity on the Hungarian Great Plain -- Analysis Scripts

Analysis scripts for investigating the relationship between water management infrastructure and drought severity across 2,911 subcatchments in the Hajdusagi (HAHO) region. Reveals a Simpson's paradox: the raw positive correlation between infrastructure density and Palfai drought severity (rho = 0.24) reverses within elevation strata, because infrastructure was historically placed in drought-prone lowlands. Methods include partial Spearman correlations, Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn's post-hoc, elevation stratification, OLS interaction models, PCA-derived infrastructure indices, Moran's I spatial autocorrelation, and SPI-12 gridded precipitation replication. Catchment delineation was performed in ArcGIS Pro 3.6 using the ArcHydro toolset.

Related Organizations

University of Debrecen
Hungary

Keywords

Simpson's paradox, Moran's I, PCA, Pálfai Aridity Index, elevation stratification, infrastructure effectiveness, SPI-12, drought, Hungarian Great Plain

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