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ZENODO
Journal . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Journal . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Journal . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Sequence-Aware AI Forecasting on Event-Driven Small-Cap Biotech Stocks

Authors: Krishna Reddy, Tejas; Chintapalli, Phanindrakumar; Sagar Reddy, Divya;

Sequence-Aware AI Forecasting on Event-Driven Small-Cap Biotech Stocks

Abstract

Biotechnology equity markets exhibit extreme event-driven volatility, particularly around pivotal regulatory milestones such as U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug approval announcements, making timing-based investment strategies both highly risky and potentially highly rewarding. This work investigates whether recurrent deep learning architectures can systematically learn latent temporal patterns in stock price behavior surrounding such regulatory events to generate profitable trading signals. A curated dataset of 177 historical FDA drug approval events was constructed, consisting of aligned pre- and post-announcement stock price time series augmented with a suite of lead technical indicators as exogenous features. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network was trained to perform sequence-to-signal classification for optimal buy and sell decision windows, achieving an overall predictive accuracy of approximately 87%. The results demonstrate the capacity of deep recurrent models to capture nonlinear, event-conditioned market dynamics in high-volatility biomedical equities, and suggest practical applicability for data-driven trading strategies in regulatory-sensitive financial environments.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Artificial intelligence, Stock (trade), Biotechnology/economics

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green