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The Strategies Behind their Actions: A New Method to Infer Repeated-Game Strategies and an Application to Buyer Behavior

Authors: Engle-Warnick, Jim; Ruffle, Bradley J;

The Strategies Behind their Actions: A New Method to Infer Repeated-Game Strategies and an Application to Buyer Behavior

Abstract

We introduce a Bayesian method to infer repeated-game strategies that best describe individuals' observed actions. We apply this method to buyer behavior in posted-offer market experiments. While the strategies of one-quarter of the buyers in our experiments correspond to the game-theoretic prediction of passive price-taking, for three-quarters of the buyers we infer different, non-trivial, repeated-game strategies that condition on time, price, and combinations of the two variables. The strategies are generally effective: the use of strategies and their complexity correlate negatively with market prices and monopolist profits. One strategy is particularly effective: the unconditional and intense forgoing of profitable purchases early in the game is more effective as a counteracting response to monopoly power than punishments that trigger when the market price exceeds a threshold. We propose that strategy inference should at least complement existing methods of statistical inference on observed strategic behavior.

Keywords

Strategy inference, 330, Repeated-game strategies, jel: jel:C91, jel: jel:D42

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Average
Average
Average
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