publication . Article . Other literature type . 1996

Are Humans Good Intuitive Statisticians after All? Rethinking Some Conclusions from the Literature on Judgment under Uncertainty.

Cosmides, L;
  • Published: 01 Jan 1996 Journal: Cognition, volume 58, pages 1-73 (issn: 0010-0277, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Elsevier BV
Abstract Professional probabilists have long argued over what probability means, with, for example, Bayesians arguing that probabilities refer to subjective degrees of confidence and frequentists arguing that probabilities refer to the frequencies of events in the world. Recently, Gigerenzer and his colleagues have argued that these same distinctions are made by untutored subjects, and that, for many domains, the human mind represents probabilistic information as frequencies. We analyze several reasons why, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, certain classes of problem-solving mechanisms in the human mind should be expected to represent probabilisti...
free text keywords: Cognitive psychology, Conjunction fallacy, Overconfidence effect, Base rate fallacy, Heuristics, Inductive reasoning, Cognitive bias, Social psychology, Frequentist inference, Bayesian inference, Psychology
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