publication . Article . Other literature type . 2000

confidence in aggregation of expert opinions

Budescu, David V.; Rantilla, Adrian K.;
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  • Published: 01 Jun 2000 Journal: Acta Psychologica, volume 104, pages 371-398 (issn: 0001-6918, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Elsevier BV
Abstract
We investigate the case of a single decision maker (DM) who obtains probabilistic forecasts regarding the occurrence of a unique target event from J distinct, symmetric, and equally diagnostic expert advisors (judges). The paper begins with a mathematical model of DM's aggregation process of expert opinions, in which confidence in the final aggregate is shown to be inversely related to its perceived variance. As such, confidence is expected to vary as a function of factors such as the number of experts, the total number of cues, the fraction of cues available to each expert, the level of inter-expert overlap in information, and the range of experts' opinions. In...
Subjects
free text keywords: Experimental and Cognitive Psychology, Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous), Developmental and Educational Psychology, General Medicine, Cognitive psychology, Ordinal number, Probabilistic logic, Cognition, Psychology, Social psychology, Decision maker
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publication . Article . Other literature type . 2000

confidence in aggregation of expert opinions

Budescu, David V.; Rantilla, Adrian K.;