publication . Article . Other literature type . 2017

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

Rogelj, Joeri; Fricko, Oliver; Meinshausen, Malte; Krey, Volker; Zilliacus, Johanna J. J.; Riahi, Keywan;
Open Access English
  • Published: 06 Jun 2017
  • Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in esti...
free text keywords: Science & Technology, Multidisciplinary Sciences, Science & Technology - Other Topics, CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION, CARBON-CYCLE MODELS, 2 DEGREES-C, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN, SIMPLER MODEL, SCENARIOS, MD Multidisciplinary, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, General Physics and Astronomy, General Chemistry, Salient, Modalities, Limiting, Energy accounting, Environmental economics, Genetics, Biology
Funded by
Linking Climate and Development Policies - Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 642147
  • Funding stream: H2020 | RIA
ARC| Future Fellowships - Grant ID: FT130100809
  • Funder: Australian Research Council (ARC) (ARC)
  • Project Code: FT130100809
  • Funding stream: Future Fellowships
50 references, page 1 of 4

UNFCCC. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1: Adoption of the Paris Agreement UNFCCC (2015).

Mace M. J.Mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement and the way forward. Climate Law 6, 21–39 (2016).

Rogelj J.. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631–639.27357792 [PubMed]

UNFCCC. FCCC/CP/2016/2: Aggregate Effect of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions: An Update-Synthesis Report by the Secretariat UNFCCC (2016).

UNFCCC. FCCC/CP/2015/7: Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions UNFCCC (2015).

Fawcett A. A.. Can Paris pledges avert severe climate change?Science 350, 1168–1169 (2015).26612835 [PubMed]

Vandyck T., Keramidas K., Saveyn B., Kitous A. & Vrontisi Z. A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: implications for energy systems and economy. Global Environ. Change 41, 46–63 (2016). [OpenAIRE]

Fujimori S.. Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals. SpringerPlus 5, 1620 (2016).27652193 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

IPCC. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of WGI to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press (1996).

IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Cambridge University Press (2007).

Gütschow J.. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850–2014). Available at: GFZ Data Services (2016).

IPCC. Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report Cambridge University Press (2014).

O'Neill B. C.. The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environ. Change 42, 169–180 (2017).

Fricko O.. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: a middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environ. Change 42, 251–267 (2017).

Dellink R., Chateau J., Lanzi E. & MagnéB. Long-term economic growth projections in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Global Environ. Change 42, 200–214 (2017). [OpenAIRE]

50 references, page 1 of 4
Powered by OpenAIRE Research Graph
Any information missing or wrong?Report an Issue