publication . Article . 1981

Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market

Richard E. Just; Gordon C. Rausser;
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Jan 1981 Journal: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, volume 63, issue 2, pages 197-208
Abstract
This paper compares the accuracy of major commercial price forecasts for corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, cotton, live cattle, and hogs. The price-forecasting information in futures prices is evaluated by comparison. The results among commercial forecasters are mixed, but futures prices perform relatively better on average although not universally so. These results have important implications for operational risk management.
Subjects
Medical Subject Headings: health care economics and organizationsfood and beveragessocial sciences
free text keywords: Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous), Economics and Econometrics, Futures contract, Contango, Futures market, Agricultural economics, Commodity, Operational risk management, Soybean meal, Economics, Hedge (finance), Econometric model
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