publication . Article . 2016

The Interaction between Vector Life History and Short Vector Life in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission and Control.

Brand, Samuel P. C.; Rock, Kat S.; Keeling, Matt J.;
Open Access
  • Published: 29 Apr 2016 Journal: PLOS Computational Biology, volume 12, page e1004837 (eissn: 1553-7358, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
  • Country: United Kingdom
Abstract
Author Summary The basic reproductive ratio (R0) is a crucial measure of transmission intensity, lying at the interface between mathematical modelling and policy decision making. If control measures can induce a situation where R0 ≤ 1 for a sustained period of time then the pathogen must be eradicated. For diseases spread by short-lived insect vectors a modeller can not calculate R0 without addressing questions of chance such as, “What percentage of vectors will survive their extrinsic incubation period (EIP) to become infectious?”. Classical Ross-Macdonald theory provides answers for the modeller by making certain concrete assumptions, such as a fixed length EI...
Subjects
free text keywords: Ecology, Modelling and Simulation, Computational Theory and Mathematics, Genetics, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Molecular Biology, Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience, Vector (epidemiology), Short vector, Extrinsic incubation period, Vector control, Life history, Basic reproduction number, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Econometrics, Field data, Biology, Immunology, QA, Biology (General), QH301-705.5, Research Article, People and Places, Demography, Death Rates, Biology and Life Sciences, Population Biology, Population Metrics, Medicine and Health Sciences, Infectious Diseases, Vector-Borne Diseases, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control, Organisms, Animals, Invertebrates, Arthropoda, Insects, Culicoides, Vaccination and Immunization, Public and Occupational Health, Preventive Medicine, Viruses, RNA viruses, Reoviruses, Bluetongue Virus, Microbiology, Medical Microbiology, Microbial Pathogens, Viral Pathogens, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Pathogens, Agriculture, Agrochemicals, Insecticides
Related Organizations
37 references, page 1 of 3

1 Ross R. An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. Part I. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A. 1916; 92(638):204–230. 10.1098/rspa.1916.0007 [OpenAIRE] [DOI]

2 Ross R. The prevention of malaria. Murray, London; 1911.

3 MacDonald G. The epidemiology and control of malaria. Oxford University Press; 1957.

4 Garrett-Jones C. Prognosis for Interruption of Malaria Transmission Through Assessment of the Mosquito’s Vectorial Capacity. Nature. 1964; 204:1173–1175. 10.1038/2041173a0 14268587 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

5 Reiner RC, Perkins TA, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LF, Ellis AM, et al A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2013 1; 10(81):20120921 10.1098/rsif.2012.0921 [OpenAIRE] [DOI]

6 Smith DL, Perkins TA, Reiner RC, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LF, et al Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 2014 3; 108(4):185–197. 10.1093/trstmh/tru026 24591453 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

7 Garrett-Jones C, Shidrawi GR. Malaria vectorial capacity of a population of Anopheles gambiae: an exercise in epidemiological entomology. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 1969; 40(4):531 5306719 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

8 Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J, Metz JA. On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 1990; 28(4):365–382. 10.1007/BF00178324 2117040 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

9 Gubbins S, Carpenter S, Baylis M, Wood JLN, Mellor PS. Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2008 3; 5(20):363–371. 10.1098/rsif.2007.1110 [OpenAIRE] [DOI]

10 Turner J, Bowers RG, Baylis M. Two-Host, Two-Vector Basic Reproduction Ratio (R 0) for Bluetongue. PLoS One. 2013; 8(1):e53128 10.1371/journal.pone.0053128 23308149 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

11 MacDonald G. The analysis of the sporozoite rate. Tropical diseases bulletin. 1952 6; 49(6):569–586. 14958825 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

12 Lysyk TJ, Danyk T. Effect of temperature on life history parameters of adult Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in relation to geographic origin and vectorial capacity for bluetongue virus. Journal of Medical Entomology. 2007; 44(5):741–751. 17915503 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

13 Gerry AC, Mullens BA. Seasonal abundance and survivorship of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) at a southern California dairy, with reference to potential bluetongue virus transmission and persistence. Journal of Medical Entomology. 2000; 37(5):675–688. 10.1603/0022-2585-37.5.675 11004778 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

14 Styer LM, Carey JR, Wang JL, Scott TW. Mosquitoes do senesce: departure from the paradigm of constant mortality. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene. 2007; 76(1):111–117. 17255238 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

15 Grimmett GR, Stirzaker DR. Probability and Random Processes. 3rd ed New York: Oxford University Press; 2001.

37 references, page 1 of 3
Abstract
Author Summary The basic reproductive ratio (R0) is a crucial measure of transmission intensity, lying at the interface between mathematical modelling and policy decision making. If control measures can induce a situation where R0 ≤ 1 for a sustained period of time then the pathogen must be eradicated. For diseases spread by short-lived insect vectors a modeller can not calculate R0 without addressing questions of chance such as, “What percentage of vectors will survive their extrinsic incubation period (EIP) to become infectious?”. Classical Ross-Macdonald theory provides answers for the modeller by making certain concrete assumptions, such as a fixed length EI...
Subjects
free text keywords: Ecology, Modelling and Simulation, Computational Theory and Mathematics, Genetics, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Molecular Biology, Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience, Vector (epidemiology), Short vector, Extrinsic incubation period, Vector control, Life history, Basic reproduction number, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Econometrics, Field data, Biology, Immunology, QA, Biology (General), QH301-705.5, Research Article, People and Places, Demography, Death Rates, Biology and Life Sciences, Population Biology, Population Metrics, Medicine and Health Sciences, Infectious Diseases, Vector-Borne Diseases, Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control, Organisms, Animals, Invertebrates, Arthropoda, Insects, Culicoides, Vaccination and Immunization, Public and Occupational Health, Preventive Medicine, Viruses, RNA viruses, Reoviruses, Bluetongue Virus, Microbiology, Medical Microbiology, Microbial Pathogens, Viral Pathogens, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Pathogens, Agriculture, Agrochemicals, Insecticides
Related Organizations
37 references, page 1 of 3

1 Ross R. An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. Part I. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A. 1916; 92(638):204–230. 10.1098/rspa.1916.0007 [OpenAIRE] [DOI]

2 Ross R. The prevention of malaria. Murray, London; 1911.

3 MacDonald G. The epidemiology and control of malaria. Oxford University Press; 1957.

4 Garrett-Jones C. Prognosis for Interruption of Malaria Transmission Through Assessment of the Mosquito’s Vectorial Capacity. Nature. 1964; 204:1173–1175. 10.1038/2041173a0 14268587 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

5 Reiner RC, Perkins TA, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LF, Ellis AM, et al A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970–2010. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2013 1; 10(81):20120921 10.1098/rsif.2012.0921 [OpenAIRE] [DOI]

6 Smith DL, Perkins TA, Reiner RC, Barker CM, Niu T, Chaves LF, et al Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 2014 3; 108(4):185–197. 10.1093/trstmh/tru026 24591453 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

7 Garrett-Jones C, Shidrawi GR. Malaria vectorial capacity of a population of Anopheles gambiae: an exercise in epidemiological entomology. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 1969; 40(4):531 5306719 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

8 Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J, Metz JA. On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 1990; 28(4):365–382. 10.1007/BF00178324 2117040 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

9 Gubbins S, Carpenter S, Baylis M, Wood JLN, Mellor PS. Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2008 3; 5(20):363–371. 10.1098/rsif.2007.1110 [OpenAIRE] [DOI]

10 Turner J, Bowers RG, Baylis M. Two-Host, Two-Vector Basic Reproduction Ratio (R 0) for Bluetongue. PLoS One. 2013; 8(1):e53128 10.1371/journal.pone.0053128 23308149 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

11 MacDonald G. The analysis of the sporozoite rate. Tropical diseases bulletin. 1952 6; 49(6):569–586. 14958825 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

12 Lysyk TJ, Danyk T. Effect of temperature on life history parameters of adult Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in relation to geographic origin and vectorial capacity for bluetongue virus. Journal of Medical Entomology. 2007; 44(5):741–751. 17915503 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

13 Gerry AC, Mullens BA. Seasonal abundance and survivorship of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) at a southern California dairy, with reference to potential bluetongue virus transmission and persistence. Journal of Medical Entomology. 2000; 37(5):675–688. 10.1603/0022-2585-37.5.675 11004778 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

14 Styer LM, Carey JR, Wang JL, Scott TW. Mosquitoes do senesce: departure from the paradigm of constant mortality. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene. 2007; 76(1):111–117. 17255238 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed]

15 Grimmett GR, Stirzaker DR. Probability and Random Processes. 3rd ed New York: Oxford University Press; 2001.

37 references, page 1 of 3
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publication . Article . 2016

The Interaction between Vector Life History and Short Vector Life in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission and Control.

Brand, Samuel P. C.; Rock, Kat S.; Keeling, Matt J.;