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Türkiye'de zaman tutarsızlığının ARDL yöntemi ile incelenmesi

Authors: SÜSLÜ, Bora; BEKMEZ, Selahattin;

Türkiye'de zaman tutarsızlığının ARDL yöntemi ile incelenmesi

Abstract

Para politikasının temeli güvenilirlilik ve şeffaflık gibi iki temele dayandığından, merkez ankaları bu doğrultuda uzun vadeli politikalar üretme çabasındadırlar. Ancak çağdaş para politikası aynı zamanda merkez bankalarına kısa vadeli istikrar politikaları görevini de yüklemiştir. Bu doğrultuda merkez bankaları kısa vadeli politikalar ile uzun vadeli politikalar arasında değiş tokuş yapar duruma gelmişleridir. Bu değiş tokuş beraberinde zaman tutarsızlığını getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada, TCMB’nin 2001 sonrası izlediği para politikalarının zaman tutarsızlığına yol açıp açmadığı ARDL yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda TCMB izlediği politikaların uzun vadeli olduğu, yani zaman tutarsızlığına yol açmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç aynı zamanda iktisadi birimlerin rasyonel beklentilere sahip olduklarını da ortaya koymuştur.

Since two main principles of the monetary policy are credibility and transparency, central banks aim to develop long-run policies. However, contemporary monetary policy approach requires that central banks are responsible for developing short-run stability policies as well. Within this context, central banks find themselves in a trade-off between short-run and longrun policy developments. Because of this trade off time inconsistency reveals. In this article, we investigate if TCMB& #8217; s monetary policy after 2001 creates time inconsistency by using ARDL method. The findings indicate that TCMB& #8217; s monetary policy didn& #8217; t create time inconsistent results. Findings also showed that economic agents have rational expectations.

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Turkey
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Keywords

İşletme, Time Inconsistency;Monetary Policy;ARDL Method, Zaman Tutarsızlığı;Para Politikası;ARDL Yöntemi, İktisat

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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