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Long memory behavior in the returns of Pakistan stock market: Arfima-Figarch models

Authors: TURKYILMAZ, Serpil; BALIBEY, Mesut;

Long memory behavior in the returns of Pakistan stock market: Arfima-Figarch models

Abstract

This study examines the weak-form market efficiency of Pakistan Stock Market namely Karachi Stock Exchange for the period 2010-2013. The efficiency of stock market has tested by using ARFIMA-FIGARCH models estimated under different distribution assumptions as Normal, Student-t, Skewed Student-t and GED distribution. According to findings of study, ARFIMA model do not support long memory behaviour for the stock market returns. However, FIGARCH model indicate that volatility of market returns has long memory. Moreover, in order to test the feature of long memory in the return and volatility of the stock market simultaneously, ARFIMA-FIGARCH models are estimated according to different distributions simultaneously. Predictable structure of volatility of Pakistan Stock Market display that this market is the weak-form market inefficiency. Consequently, it is possible to say that technical analysis related to this stock market may be valid. This implies that it is possible to predict future stock prices and extra ordinary gains could be obtained trading in this market. © 2014 Econjournals. All rights reserved.

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Turkey
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Keywords

ARFIMA-FIGARCH model, Long memory, Weak-form efficient market hypothesis, Weak-Form Efficient Market Hypothesis;Long Memory;ARFIMA-FIGARCH model;Volatility, Volatility, Weak-Form Efficient Market Hypothesis; Long Memory; ARFIMA-FIGARCH model; Volatility., jel: jel:G17, jel: jel:G15, jel: jel:C13, jel: jel:C58, jel: jel:G10

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average