
handle: 11250/3179853
Climate change leads to more intense and powerful rainfall events, increasing the risk of flooding in small and steep catchments. This creates a need for effective models for flood forecasting and water resource management. This study evaluates the performance of HEC-HMS in a rainfall-runoff simulation for a Norwegian catchment. To assess HEC-HMS, meteorological and hydrological data from a Norwegian catchment were used to develop the model. The model was calibrated using three different objective functions: RMSE, PEP, and PWRMSE. It was then validated for various events using performance indicators such as NSE, RSR, R², and PEP. A local sensitivity analysis was also conducted to identify the most critical parameters, including curve number, initial abstraction and lag time. The results show that HEC-HMS is capable of simulating rainfall-runoff processes with satisfactory accuracy under Norwegian conditions. The calibration results indicate that RMSE provides the best balance between peak runoff and volume, while PEP performs best when only peak runoff is considered. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the curve number has the greatest impact on the model's performance across different parts of the catchment. In conclusion, HEC-HMS is a simple yet effective model that can be adapted to Norwegian catchments. This makes it a valuable tool for developing flood forecasts and supporting improved water resource management in the face of climate change. Further research is recommended to validate the model's performance in various hydrological and geographical conditions in Norway.
Klimaendringer fører til mer intense og kraftige nedbørshendelser, noe som øker risikoen for flom i små og bratte vassdrag. Dette skaper et behov for effektive modeller for flomprognoser og vannressursforvaltning. Denne oppgaven undersøker ytelsen til HEC-HMS i en nedbør-avrenningssimulering for et norsk nedbørfelt. For å evaluere HEC-HMS ble meteorologiske og hydrologiske data fra et norsk nedbørfelt brukt til å utvikle modellen. Modellen ble kalibrert ved hjelp av tre ulike målfunksjoner: RMSE, PEP, og PWRMSE. Den ble deretter validert for ulike hendelser ved hjelp av ytelsesindikatorer som NSE, RSR, R², og PEP. En lokal sensitivitetsanalyse ble også gjennomført for å identifisere de mest kritiske parameterne, inkludert kurvenummer, initialt tap og forsinkelsestid. Resultatene viser at HEC-HMS er i stand til å simulere nedbør-avrenningsprosesser med tilfredsstillende nøyaktighet under norske forhold. Kalibreringsresultatene viser at RMSE gir den beste balansen mellom toppavrenning og volum, mens PEP er best når man kun vurderer toppavrenning. Sensitivitetsanalysen avdekket at kurvenummer har størst innvirkning på modellens ytelse i forskjellige deler av nedbørfeltet. Konklusjonen er at HEC-HMS er en enkel, men effektiv modell som kan tilpasses norske nedbørfelt. Dette gjør modellen til et nyttig verktøy for å utvikle flomprognoser og støtte bedre forvaltning av vannressurser i møte med klimaendringer. Videre forskning anbefales for å bekrefte modellens ytelse i ulike hydrologiske og geografiske forhold i Norge.
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