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Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Torkildsen, Thomas;

Stochastic Volatility Models

Abstract

I denne avhandlingen ble effektiviteten av Stokastiske Volatilitetsmodeller, med ARMA(p, q) log-volatilitet, undersøkt i forhold til GARCH(p, q) i å forutsi volatiliteten til finansielle tidsserier. Videre var målet å vurdere evnen til SVMer i å fange opp atferden til underliggende finansielle tidsserier. En rekke SVMer og GARCH-modeller ble tilpasset til ti forskjellige aksjer, med modellseleksjon veiledet av Akaike Informasjons Kriterium (AIC) og validert gjennom en rullende kryssvalideringsmetode. De teoretiske og empiriske variansene til innovasjonene, samt autokorrelasjonsfunksjonen (ACF) og autokovariansfunksjonen (ACVF) for begge modellene ble sammenlignet i avhandlingen. Våre funn antyder at SVMer overgår GARCH-modeller i å forutsi volatilitet og estimerer den marginale variansen mer nøyaktig for alle de testede tidsseriene. Imidlertid antyder avvik mellom teoretisk og empirisk ACVF og ACF potensielle forbedringsområder for SVMer. Disse resultatene indikerer at SVMer kan tjene som et bedre verktøy for prediksjon av volatilitet i finansielle instrumenter i sammenlikning GARCH-modeller. Fremtidig forskning bør vurdere å teste disse modellene over forskjellige tidsperioder og utforske alternative GARCH-modeller, som Eksponentiell GARCH (EGARCH). Ytterligere forskning bør også fokusere på å forbedre SVMenes evne til å fange opp dynamikken i kvadrerte innovasjoner.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green