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Juegos de azar: aleatoriedad y razonamiento falaz

Authors: Iranzo, Valeriano;

Juegos de azar: aleatoriedad y razonamiento falaz

Abstract

El artículo consta de cuatro apartados. El primero hace un breve recorrido histórico para mostrar la estrecha imbricación entre los juegos de azar y las matemáticas. En el segundo se argumenta que los juegos de azar son 'injustos' para el apostante y favorables para la casa de apuestas; precisamente en eso reside el margen de benefi cios que obtiene esta última y que la convierte en un negocio rentable. Se explica además cómo, mediante un sencillo cálculo, podemos averiguar si una apuesta en particular, o un juego, entendiendo éste como una secuencia de apuestas, es 'justo' o no. También se razona por qué cuando los apostantes se enfrentan a un 'cociente de apuestas' adverso a la larga acabarán perdiendo todo su dinero. Si el jugador advirtiera la certidumbre de su ruina a largo plazo, por razones matemáticas, quizá dejase de apostar. Pero lo que a menudo suele ocurrir es bien distinto: el jugador hace sus cábalas sobre cómo funciona el azar y sobre sus posibilidades de controlarlo, extrae sus conclusiones sobre el comportamiento del dispositivo físico que genera los resultados, y' sigue apostando. La evidencia experimental apunta además que cuando razonamos sobre probabilidades, jugadores y no jugadores, somos muy propensos a cometer errores. Por eso en el tercer apartado se exponen diversos razonamientos engañosos ''falacias'', relacionados con la probabilidad y el azar. Para acabar se incluye una breve sección con las conclusiones.

The article consists of four sections. The fi rst is a short historical look to display the close relation between games of chance and mathematics. The second argues that games are chance are 'unfair' for the gambler and favourable for the betting fi rm; this is precisely where the profi t margin lies for the fi rm, and why this is a profi table business. It also explains how, by means of a simple calculation, we can fi nd out whether a particular bet or a game, understood as a series of bets, is 'fair' or not. It furthermore gives the reasons why gamblers will in the long term end up losing their money when they have to play against an adverse 'betting quotient'. If players could realise the inevitability of their ruin in the long term for mathematical reasons, they might stop betting. What often tends to happen is nevertheless quite another matter: the players work out their calculations as to how chance works and their possibilities of controlling this, draw their conclusions as to how the physical device generating the results works and ' go on betting. The experimental evidence also indicates that when gamblers and non-gamblers alike reason on probabilities, we are very prone to make mistakes. For this reason the third section puts forward several errors of reasoning ' 'fallacies', connected with probability and chance. To end with there is a short section containing the conclusions.

Keywords

Sociología. Población. Trabajo social, Ciencias de la salud. Generalidades, Ciencias sociales, Ciencias de la salud

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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