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Efeito de contágio no mercado financeiro português

Authors: Pinto, João Manuel Almeida Nunes;

Efeito de contágio no mercado financeiro português

Abstract

A crise económica e financeira internacional que se iniciou em 2007 e que se transformou numa crise de divida soberana, tem um efeito significativo no dia-a-dia das instituições financeiras, tornando-se assim cada vez mais importante compreender o comportamento do mercado interbancário português. Numa primeira parte, de carácter teórico, é abordado o conceito de contágio, focando o comércio internacional e o mercado financeiro. Seguidamente é desenvolvida a temática relativa ao Banco Central Europeu e à sua influência no mercado financeiro, nomeadamente o português. Na segunda parte, pretende-se contribuir para a compreensão e interpretação do efeito de contágio no mercado financeiro Português, através da aplicação do teste à Granger e da análise de correlação às cotações dos principais bancos portugueses cotados na NYSE Euronext, o BPI, o BES e o BCP, entre Janeiro de 2007 e Dezembro de 2010. Conclui-se a existência de uma rendibilidade média negativa espelhando a presença da crise económica no período em estudo. Verificou-se também a existência de uma correlação entre os títulos do BPI, BES e BCP, não existindo no entanto uma causalidade capaz de influenciar todos os títulos da mesma forma.

The economical and financial crisis that began in 2007 and became a sovereign debt crisis, has a significant effect on the financial institutions day-to-day, thus becoming increasingly important to understand the behavior of the portuguese interbank market. In the first part, it’s discussed the concept of contagion, focusing on international trade and finance market. Next, is developed the theme of European Central Bank and its influence on financial markets, including the portuguese one. In the second part, we intend to contribute to the understanding and interpretation of the effect of contagion in portuguese financial market, through the application of the Granger test and correlation analysis to the share prices of the major portuguese banks listed on the NYSE Euronext, the BPI, BES and BCP, between January 2007 and December 2010. We conclude the existence of a negative average yield reflecting the presence of the economic crisis during the study period. There was also a correlation between the titles of the BPI, BES and BCP, but there is no causal influence between all the titles.

Country
Portugal
Related Organizations
Keywords

BCP, Contagion, BES, Contágio, BPI, Teste de causalidade à Granger, Granger causality test

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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