
handle: 10362/186954
This work project analyzes the sustainability of the Italian pension system, which is increasingly threatened by demographic and economic changes. With an aging population and declining birth rates, the system risks collapse. The objective is to evaluate strategies to balance financial sustainability and intergenerational equity. A VAR model is employed to study the relationships between population, birth rates, and life expectancy using a multitemporal approach, analyzing data from different historical periods to assess the effects of past reforms. Exogenous shock scenarios are simulated using the LP model to evaluate the potential impact of migration flows and increased birth rates. The research offers recommendations to maintain pension sustainability while safeguarding social justice and economic stability.
Vector autoregressive model (VAR), Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão, Sustainability, Demographic trends, Forecasting and local projection (LP), Intergeneration equality, Policy reform, Pension system
Vector autoregressive model (VAR), Domínio/Área Científica::Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão, Sustainability, Demographic trends, Forecasting and local projection (LP), Intergeneration equality, Policy reform, Pension system
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