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PeerJ Computer Science
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Article . 2024
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Multi level perspectives in stock price forecasting: ICE2DE-MDL

Authors: Zinnet Duygu Aksehir; Erdal Kiliç;

Multi level perspectives in stock price forecasting: ICE2DE-MDL

Abstract

This study proposes a novel hybrid model, called ICE2DE-MDL, integrating secondary decomposition, entropy, machine and deep learning methods to predict a stock closing price. In this context, first of all, the noise contained in the financial time series was eliminated. A denoising method, which utilizes entropy and the two-level ICEEMDAN methodology, is suggested to achieve this. Subsequently, we applied many deep learning and machine learning methods, including long-short term memory (LSTM), LSTM-BN, gated recurrent unit (GRU), and SVR, to the IMFs obtained from the decomposition, classifying them as noiseless. Afterward, the best training method was determined for each IMF. Finally, the proposed model’s forecast was obtained by hierarchically combining the prediction results of each IMF. The ICE2DE-MDL model was applied to eight stock market indices and three stock data sets, and the next day’s closing price of these stock items was predicted. The results indicate that RMSE values ranged from 0.031 to 0.244, MAE values ranged from 0.026 to 0.144, MAPE values ranged from 0.128 to 0.594, and R-squared values ranged from 0.905 to 0.998 for stock indices and stock forecasts. Furthermore, comparisons were made with various hybrid models proposed within the scope of stock forecasting to evaluate the performance of the ICE2DE-MDL model. Upon comparison, The ICE2DE-MDL model demonstrated superior performance relative to existing models in the literature for both forecasting stock market indices and individual stocks. Additionally, to our knowledge, this study is the first to effectively eliminate noise in stock item data using the concepts of entropy and ICEEMDAN. It is also the second study to apply ICEEMDAN to a financial time series prediction problem.

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Keywords

ICEEMDAN, Human-Computer Interaction, Electronic computers. Computer science, Deep learning, Financial time series, QA75.5-76.95, Stock price prediction, Mode decomposition, Denoising approach

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
8
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold