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Global Scenario Narratives

Authors: de Jong, Petra; Boissonneault, M. (Michael);

Global Scenario Narratives

Abstract

Over the past decades, international migration has become by far the most important force behind European population change: without migration, the population in Europe would have been declining already since the mid-1990s. With this development, the importance of migration as a social and political concern has intensified significantly, and migration has become a highly debated topic in Europe and the rest of the world. Although in many EU countries migrants fill existing and emerging gaps in the labour force, and therefore tend to have a positive impact on the economic development of these countries, there seems to be a growing fear that the current levels of migration are unsustainable. As international migration has major implications for societies and economies, forward looking analyses of migration are valuable tools for many domains of policy making. The aim of this report is to build further on this growing literature on migration scenarios, paying close attention to the main insights of previous studies while also exploring new ways to formulate migration scenarios that allow for greater flexibility in the domains and developments covered.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

Europe, migration scenarios, migration

Acostamadiedo, E., Sohst, R., Tjaden, J., Groenewold, G., & de Valk, H. (2020). Assessing Immigration Scenarios for the European Union in 2030 - Relevant, Realistic and Reliable? : nternational Organization for Migration, Geneva, and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, the Hague.

Ariely, G. A., Warnes, R., Bijak, J., & Landesman, R. (2011). Futures of borders: a forward study of European border checks. Scenario report. Warsaw: Frontex.

Barrett, A., Kahanec, M., Zimmermann, K. F., & Maître, B. (2013). Immigrant welfare receipt across Europe. International Journal of Manpower.

Betts, A., & Kainz, L. (2017). The history of global migration governance: Refugee Studies Centre, Oxford Department of International Development.

Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. (2011). The efect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change, 21, S3-S11.

Sala, O. E., Chapin, F. S., Armesto, J. J., Berlow, E., Bloomfield, J., Dirzo, R., Kinzig, A. (2000). Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. science, 287(5459), 1770-1774.

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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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