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Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2025
License: CC BY NC SA
Data sources: Datacite
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Statistical Refutation of the RNA World Hypothesis: Extensive Simulations of an RNA-Only Protocell in Prebiotic Environments

Authors: Reza Hashemi;

Statistical Refutation of the RNA World Hypothesis: Extensive Simulations of an RNA-Only Protocell in Prebiotic Environments

Abstract

The RNA World hypothesis posits that RNA alone could sustain early life as both genetic and catalytic molecule. We challenge this by simulating a minimal 170-nt RNA protocell (70 nt functional + 100 nt rRNA; 30% A, 30% G, 20% C, 15% U, 5% inosine/pseudouridine; ΔΔG -8.5 to -9.5 kcal/mol) in hydrothermal vents (80 ± 15°C, pH 6.0 ± 0.5, oxidative stress 0.45 ± 0.18 mM), ice (-5 ± 3°C, pH 7.0 ± 0.4, oxidative stress 0.08 ± 0.04 mM), and wet-dry cycles (25 ± 10°C, pH 6.8 ± 0.6, oxidative stress 0.35 ± 0.15 mM), excluding all other elements (peptides, DNA, vesicles, catalysts, energy). An Agent-Based Model (ABM) with 1,000 protocells over 100,000 steps (~100 division cycles) and 1,500 replicates reveals rapid collapse: median survival of 30,000–60,000 steps, proto-translation rates of 0.003–0.006 mM/hr, RNA mutation rates of 4.5–5.0 × 10⁻⁷, and lineage divergence of 30–40%. Statistical analyses (ANOVA, regression, Kaplan-Meier, bootstrap) confirm robust failure (p 0.85, 95% CI ±1.5–2.5%), with ice environments marginally better but insufficient. Compared to supported models (970,000 steps, 0.068 mM/hr), RNA-only systems are 94–97% less viable. These extensive simulations statistically refute the RNA World hypothesis, supporting the Matter World Hypothesis (MWH) that molecular synergy is essential. Results are computational and require experimental validation.

Keywords

RNA Protocell, RNA World Hypothesis, Agent-Based Modeling, Matter World Hypothesis, Hydrothermal Vents, Ice, Wet-Dry Cycles, Statistical Refutation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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Average